When the first two villagers hopped on to domesticated horses and the horses began to run, horse racing was born, and betting on the race probably started a few minutes later and ever since, people have been trying to figure out how to select a horse racing system.
It's thought that horse racing occurred as far back as 4500 BC among the tribesmen of Central Asia. Chariot and mounted racing were events in the 638 B.C. Greek Olympics. "Modern" horse racing was first established in the 12 century, and became a full-fledged sport in 1702. By 1750 the Jockey Club was established in England that governs horse racing there to this day.
The first race track in the United States dates back to 1665 on Long Island, NY. But it wasn't until about 200 years later that organized racing caught on in the States. In the late 1800's, the premise of pari-mutuel betting was introduced by Pierre Oller and the process was put into use in 19008. Oller's system is still being used for payout distribution at the tracks. In 1868, the American Stud Book began recording statistics and information about horses. http://www.mrmike.com/explore/hrhist.htm
Once all of the legalities were addressed and wagerers were able to get information about the horses in the race fairly easily, it was obvious that handicapping could improve your chances of winning a few extra bucks. With that, it goes to reason that tip sheets were not too far behind. "Tip Sheets" are productions of someone's analysis of the upcoming races and using his own "system" can predict, with "guaranteed" accuracy the winners of future races.
You probably are not going into the "tip sheet" business, but when attending or wagering on horse races, you need the same information that "tipsters" use and you need to know how to select a horse racing system that will work. The main intention of your involvement with horse racing is making money and to do so, you have to take a number of different factors into consideration, compare the horses, and pick winners. A system will help you make those decisions.
Of course, no system is going to be 100% guaranteed, although many claim to be, but there may be some that can improve your winning percentages.
2009 Kentucky Derby - Mine That Bird
The video is of the 2009 Kentucky Derby in which 50-1 shot, "Mine That Bird" won the race and delivering the biggest payouts in Derby history. If possible, look at the horse's stats on that day. Check your system and see if your system would have pointed to the horse's success that day. If not, recheck the stats carefully to see if there was something you've missed. Picking the correct system should be based on "trial and error" resulting in a more refined and accurate system.
Step 1: Handicapping
You must know how to understand horse racing handicapping. Handicapping is a system of looking at all of the available information about the horse, and there is a lot of it, making a comparison among the horses, and deciding which horse will perform the best under the specific conditions of the track that day. Learning how to handicap races successfully is a long and involved process that needs constant attention. Handicapping is an individual endeavor. For some people, it's a process of elimination, that is. they are looking at the horse's stats and deciding which horses will not hit the board. For others, looking for favorable stats are more important. Becoming aware of the characteristics of a horse's racing style is very important for picking winners. Determining which characteristics are the most important should be based on your previous experiences and observances.
Handicappers should pay attention to a different number of things. Some of the overlooked information are listed below.
- Look at the dates of the horse's last two races.
If the last race was run following a layoff and the horse was finishing well but came up short, the horse's last race could have been a warm-up race to get the horse back in form.
- Look at the pattern of the horse's last few races.
If the horse got off well, then lost ground, then came back strong, it could indicate that the horse ran into some difficulty, dropped back, then recovered. This could indicate that barring any problems in the race, the horse could hit the board.
- Is there a jockey change?
If there is a change in jockeys, and a jockey with better racing percentages takes over the reins, it could indicate that this horse is improving. The better jockeys usually gets their pick of the horses in the race.
- Is there a change in the racing surface?
If there is a change in the racing surface, dirt to turf, or vice versa, keep in mind that the turf is softer and easier on the horse than the dirt. Some trainers will switch to turf if their horse is sore or inexperienced. If the horse is going from turf to dirt it could mean that the horse's performances have been improving and the trainer believes that the horse is ready to run on the faster dirt track.
- Keep your eye on the tote-board.
If there is a sudden drop in the odds of a horse or if the morning line was noticeably higher than the present odds, it could indicate "insider" information. The only thing that affects the odds is the amount of money wagered on that horse. The more money, the lower the odds. A significant drop should be duly noted.
- Look at the horse's positions during his races.
If he had a bad post position but managed to maintain the lead for two calls, and his post for this race is closer to the rail, the horse may deserve a look.
- Is the horse moving up or down in class?
There are different ways handicappers perceive this information. Some think that if the horse is moving up the horse is improving and is ready to take on stiffer competition. Others think that if when a horse is moving up in class it lacks the experience of racing with better horses and the race is more like a test.
If the horse is moving down in class, some think that this means that the horse's performance is lagging. Some think that the original move up in class was premature, and the move back down could result in an easier race for the horse.
If the horse is moving up in class, look at the odds on the horse in his last race. If his odds for the move-up race are lower than his odds in his last race, take note.
- What are the horse's earnings stats?
Look at the amount of money the horse has won this year, last year, and the lifetime earnings. This will give you an idea as to whether the horse is on line, improving, or having difficulties compared to the previous years performances.http://www.horsehats.com/horse-betting-systems.html
Step 2: Point Systems
Some handicappers, in order to keep a of tally for all of the information he's gathered, will assign point values to the information. The horse with the greatest number of points should win or at least hit the board. One of the point systems that uses the horse's past four performances to calculate the winning horse uses the following criteria.
Using the last four races:
- Add the two best of the four Beyer speed figures together and divide by 2
Award: *4 points to the horse with the highest figure *2 points to the second highest.
- Add number of lengths by which the horse was beaten in its last two races.
Award *3 points for lowest total *2 points for second total
Skip this if two or more horses won their last two races
'Award:
- 2 points - for trainer win percentage of 10% or better
- 1 point - for jockey win percentage of 10% or better
- 1 point - In a sprint race (less than a mile) for each horse that was beaten by 3 lengths or less in his last race
- 1 point - In a route race (longer than a mile) for a horse going from turf to dirt
- 1 point - for a horse using "Lasix" for the first time.
Deduct 1 point - In a route race from any horse in a post position worse than 8th.http://www.horsehats.com/horse-betting-systems.html
This system can be modified to reflect the most important statistics that you think are important that are not included.
You could also award 1 point to the horse that:
- In a sprint likes to take the lead and goes out in front quickly.
- In a route Settles in the middle and makes a late move, coming from behind
- Going from a route to a sprint race to each horse that did well in the race but faded at the end of the longer race.
- Going from sprint to route race to each horse that was finishing strong in the sprint but ran out of racing room.
- On a sloppy track has already run a good race and appears that mud is not an issue to the horse.
Deduct 1 point
- If the horse had a poor performance on an off-track and is running on an off track again.
- If the horse is going from a sprint to a route and showed signs of tiring or began losing ground towards the end of the previous race.
The horse with the most points gets the bet only if its total is 3 or more points higher than the other horses.
The point system may seem somewhat tedious as well as time consuming, but as you become more adept at using the system, you'll be making your selections quicker. Past performance information is basically in the same format for every track in the country. You'll know exactly where to look for the information you want.
Step 3: Process of Elimination
Some handicappers eliminate horses or races. Some of the reasons for eliminating a horse include:
- The horse is new to the track. Check where the horse's last two races occurred. If both races were at a different track, eliminate the horse.
- Delete the horse if its last race was plus or minus one furlong in distance of today's race.
- Eliminate the horse if it's changing running surface, from turf to dirt, or vice versa.
- Eliminate the horse if it was not in the lead or at least within three lengths of the leader throughout its last race.
- Eliminate the race completely if there are 3 or more first-time starters.
If you have 2 or 3 horses left, use the Beyer speed figure for the horses' last races and the one with the best gets the bet. This is a good time to try some exotic bets, exactas and possibly trifectas.
If more than 3 horses are left, eliminate the race.http://www.horsehats.com/horse-betting-systems.html
As you can see, some of the same factors are used for awarding points and for eliminating the horse. You will have to take a closer look at the past performances, checking to see if the condition occurred previously and how the horse reacted. If that information isn't available, you will have to rely on your own expertise as to whether the situation is an asset or a liability to the horse.
Step 4: Mathematical Systems
Some systems are based on mathematical equations. These systems usually are computerized selections using mathematical odds based on information programed. A number of soft-ware products are available for sale.
One type of the mathematical based systems is the "Dutch Betting System" which is formulating by betting a number of "win" tickets on various horses and calculating how many bets on the horses to win will result in your breaking even or getting ahead.
In this system, you decide how much you would like to win that race. Then calculate the number of tickets you would have to purchase on the horses to win that amount. If you pick three horses determine the cost per horse to win your dollar target amount based on the odds of the horse. You can bet as many horses as you like to "win" as long as the amount of the money bet is less than $100.00. The idea is that the more horses you bet on, the more likely you'll cash a ticket.http://www.horsehats.com/horse-betting-systems.html
Other systems are based on "probabilities" and there have been a number of software programs developed that will calculate everything for you. The cost of these programs vary. If you choose to use this type of system, don't be persuaded into buying it by the promises contained in the advertisements. Look for a money back guarantee. Check out the system first with an imaginary bank roll to calculate you wins or losses for a particular day at the track.
