Black Swan Theory

Black Swan Theory is a philosophical and mathematical theory founded by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It describes randomness and uncertainty. The theory was described in Taleb's book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. It's name originates in the assumption in Medieval Europe that black swans could not exist, when in fact, they are rare, but do exist.Observer: The New Sage of Wall Street (September 28, 2008)

According to the Black Swan Theory, unpredictable events are much more common than people think and are the norm and not the exception. Taleb believes that the more educated people are, the more likely it is that they incorrectly believe these unpredictable events are uncommon. Taleb says that because of an information overflow in today's society, we often don't interpret data accurately and create correlations that are not always relevant, when randomness more often is the rule. Taleb does not believe in the expertise of bankers or financial analysts and say that society incorrectly believe that they can predict the future.Newsweek: Don't Trust Anyone In a Tie (November 15, 2008)

"Never take advice from anyone in a tie. They'll bankrupt you. Don't ask a general for advice on war, and don't ask a broker for advice on money. Think about the derivatives mess—buying credit derivatives from these banks was like buying insurance for the Titanic from people who were on the Titanic!" — Nassim Nicholas TalebNewsweek: Don't Trust Anyone In a Tie (November 15, 2008)

• The New York Times: Fist Chapter of The Black Swan (April 22, 2007)