I think the chance of another attach depends on 2 factors. First, does Al Qaeda have the ability to carry out another attach, and second do they have the desire or motivation to.

I think the answer as to whether they are able to is 100% yes. Even with all of the security procedures in place it still isn't that difficult to commit some large scale terrorist attack. Whether it be biological/chemical on one of our totally unprotected subways or amtrak or just dumping poison in the great lakes I think it is possible. Add in the fact that the terrorists don't mind dying to perform the attack and things only get easier from their end.

The second factor is really much more interesting. Terrorists want to terrorize and in that respect they have been very successful. Americans, or at least enough of them, are afraid of an attack. There is fear and distrust of Muslims and heightened security measures since 2001. In other words, if we are already (or still) feeling the effects of the first terrorist attack what would another one accomplish? They don't need to do it just to prove they can, they do it to instill fear. With no additional motivation to do so I don't think Al Qaeda will commit another terrorist attack until Americans become totally complacent again. Whether for good or bad we are a long way off from that. Remember when pocketknives were allowed on planes? Today we would be happy to get a bottle of water on board.

Overall, I think there will be another attack. It is too easy to carry one out and it is inevitable that Americans will grow complacent. The terrorists are also constantly training and are not totally rational. They may attack just to avoid getting bored and complacent on their end. Like a firefighter waiting for his first fire, these radicals will want to see action even though it comes at the cost of someone else.

Permalink | Report