Will the Model S propel Tesla Motors into the next major car company? What source of energy will the next great company focus on?
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M$10 Answers
But the roadster is a unpratical and really expensive automobile that will never be mass produced. They need a middle sized car to compete. And that's what they are going for with the model S.
In my opinion, however, Tesla won't become a major car manufacturer any time soon. On the other hand they are prime for being a main producer of electrical drivetrains, for the likes of Daimler (who already have a stake in the company). And you will see many cars, from Mercedes to Smarts with Tesla drivetrains in the future.
Without an affordable small car, with a big range, Tesla won't be able to break into the big leagues, because although their tech is great, it doesn't yet provide what consumers are looking for. Today they are heavily subsidized and only survived the crisis because of that, and they need to build partnerships with bigger car makers to go into the black, before thinking of being a big car maker.
As for the different fuel options, here is my take:
1) Hibrids:
A mix of traditional fuels and modern electrical drivetrains is the most rational choice right now, without an infraestructure in place to serve electrical cars and with limited milage delivered from current batterie technology.
2) Hydrogen / Fuel Cell
Probably the best option in the future. Hydrogen is very cheap and common in the universe. The problem is it is still expensive to produce and not very safe to storage.
3) Electric
These are trully the dream cars we want. Silent and clean. But there is no infrastucture in place to serve them and electricity needs to be produced, and usually still uses tradittionally carbon sources.
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M$
There will be some cars on the market that use nothing but electricity but they won't go mainstream within the next 10 years.
There're three things that need to happen before electric cars go mainstream:
- the price needs to go down.
Low cost models are needed.
- we need better batteries.
The technology isn't here yet. Maybe in the next 5 to 10 years.
It's anybody's guess.
- a shift in our behavior.
The global warming movement is still very much alive, but ...
... the momentum it once had has slowed down tremendously.
I hate to say this: we need something bad to happen!
Let's try to stay optimistic.
Car manufacturers are looking for ways to secure access to natural resources like lithium which is being used in batteries.
They hesitate but that's because it's too soon to secure access because no-one is 100% sure the batteries will be lithium based.
But at least they are thinking about a fuel efficient future, one where electricity is being used.
Everything else is like building castles in the sky.
Biofuels?
Biofuels might be a part of the solution that is being forced upon us but even though the amount of CO2 output is a little bit less, when you take everything into account you need to grow crops and that by itself produces CO2, plus you get other types of toxic gasses when you use biofuel.
The cost is higher as well.
The lobbyists behind this industry won't like me saying it but it's not at all unlikely that biofuels cause similar and other problems.
There's a shift happening right now that moves away from biofuels.
We're in a financial crisis. There's a green solution to getting out of this crisis but the truth is investments in green technology aren't exactly going up.
It's good some money went to Tesla.
We need small innovative companies like Tesla because without them the chances of seeing breakthroughs in the next 10 years are slim to none.
Your question:
Will the Tesla Model S propel the company into the next major car company?
The answer is no because :
For all the reasons mentioned above and you can't go mainstream with the Model S. It's an expensive sportscar that isn't meant to go mainstream.
You do need to reach out and find the early adopters who cheer your product. This is the right kind of car for them.
This is a step in the right direction.
Ultimately, what will propel the company into a bright future is the technology.
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M$
5. less road accidents and less fatalities
I see his point because when the gas price was at $4 last year, we did see a lot of lifestyle changes and in some extent brought the car makers to their knees and to work on energy efficient cars.
Thank you. I agree the Model S is a little expensive but I believe it can really compete in it's price range. With the performance, styling, claimed seating for 7, and no gas all for a starting price of 50k I think it can be a really solid competitor.
But what are the other socio-economic issues that would arise due to high gas prices? need to do some more reading on that.
@6bats - "- a shift in our behavior.
The global warming movement is still very much alive, but ...
... the momentum it once had has slowed down tremendously.
I hate to say this: we need something bad to happen! "
nothing really bad, just to increase the price of gasoline, maybe more tax on oil imports.
Check this out what this guy Christopher Steiner says http://www.hachettebookgroup.com/features/pergallon/index.html
When the gas price goes up we might see very big changes in the US and around the world.
1. life style changes - more healthy people
2. energy innovation - alternate energy transportation, etc.
3. death of big corporations like walmart
4. local market boom
5. road accidents and fatalities
6. end of middle east crisis
7. less pollution, less GHG, less worry about global warming and disappearance coastal cities. and so on.
Wait a minute ¿did they plug that car in to a 110 connection? I didn't knew that was possible...
The difference with the Tesla Model S and some of the other "alternative cars" is that the Model S is "Pure electrical" while most of the successful "alternative cars" are hybrids, meaning that they use gasoline AND electricity.
This is the advantage and at the same time, the disadvantage of the model S. Because if you can achieve that performance with a "pure electrical" model, just think what you can do with a hybrid.
But the question is, what do you need this car for? And the answer is up to you, and there is where Tesla motor capitalizes, because they are giving you choice and the election is yours.
However there are still several "Game Changers" that are just surfacing, have you read about "inflatable cars"?:
And what about "breathing batteries"?:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17159-breathing-batteries-could-store-10-times-the-energy.html
This two new technologies, could change the shape of our actual transportation technology
However about the pros and cons of the alternative fuels I must say, we need to develop new ways to produce energy.
-Biofuels are great, but they are taking the traditional agriculture space.
-Hidrogen is good but is just a way to transfer and store the energy, not a way to produce it.
-Electrical are good too, but, where is being produce that electricity?
Only when we begun developing new sources of energy, we will be able to say we are turning really green.
However I have to admit that the Model S has a huge publicity apparatus behind.
Good luck :)
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M$I'm definitely not a physics person, so this idea may be whack, but what about wind technology? What about a wind tunnel molded into the body of the car with small turbines that produce energy? Would that be counterproductive or what?
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M$
Drag Force Formula
The drag force for a given object can be found using the formula below:
FD = CD 0.5 A v2
FD = The drag force measured in N (Newton).
CD = The drag coefficient, measured in N/ m2, i.e. the drag force per square metre frontal area of the object shape. You will have to find this figure in a table. This value is usually found through (very expensive) wind tunnel measurements.
Warning: Airfoil tables frequently give the drag coefficient per square metre wing or rotor blade area, rather than per square metre frontal area. You can recalculate that figure, since you know the relative thickness of the airfoil.
= The density of the fluid measured in kg/m3. In the case of dry air at sea surface level at 15° C the figure is 1.225 kg/m3.
http://www.windpower.org/en/tour/wtrb/drag.htm
If you are talking about vehicle powered by a wind turbine (a perpetual motion machine), thent he drag of the wind turbine will be more than the energy produced.
But wind turbine for charging batteries at rest or while braking is a good idea and there seems to be a patent already on that as mentioned in my earlier comment.
No, you cant use a wind turbine generate power on a car while accelerating/cruising. Because wind turbine/blades increase the drag on the car. So the energy produced by the turbine will be much less than drag and the inertia of the car and does not follow law of conservation of energy.
But if you are talking about using a turbine generate power during braking, that would work. They already use regenerative braking to charge the batteries by a generator attached to the shaft in hybrid cars.
Same way we can use a turbine for regenerative braking. Turbine can be closed with an aerodynamic cover while cruising /accelerating and opened to allow wind thro the turbine while braking.
Thank you. The wind tunnel idea sounds like a good idea to me as well. :)
Thanks for the clarification. I was afraid the drag would be too much. I've been wondering about that for a couple of years now, but hadn't the knowledge in that area to know if it would work.
I also had another idea, which may also be whack, of using two pleated disks where magnets are attached to the pleats of each disk, using one pole for the upper disk and opposite pole for the bottom disk. When the disks come together, the opposite magnetic forces would cause one plate to turn (maybe.....looks good in my head at least), which would be attached to a small generator and would recharge batteries while a car is parked, such as if you drove it to work and it would recharge the batteries while you are at work.
I haven't been able to experiment yet with my disk idea, so I don't even know if it would work, but it seems like it would. Maybe if there is a mechanism built in that would consistently move the disks closer together while the magnets are in line and then apart as the force causes the disk to turn and then together and then apart over and over rapidly to bring the magnets closer together to take full advantage of the forces at work.
I don't know. I wish I had majored in physics. It's very interesting to me, but I just don't have the knowledge and it's frustrating because I have millions of ideas, but not a clue as to whether any of them would work.
I found this blog about a patent for a car with a wind turbine. not sure of the details. obviously it wont work while cruising/accelerating.
http://greenpatentblog.com/2008/09/17/ford-to-explore-wind-turbines-on-car-roofs/
But it can be used to recharge batteries while braking and also while being idle/at the parking lot etc.
Prius and a few other makers also have multiple green power options like
regenerative braking plus solar panel on the roof.
Maybe they can use this too in addition. plus pedal inside the car so that the passangers can pedal and drive the generator. Then the overall machine will be a perpetual motion machine. no external energy required.
@samid - I think you are talking about magnetic motor. see below question for details.
http://www.mahalo.com/answers/science-and-mathematics/do-magnetic-motor-generators-exists-how-much-do-they-cost-and-where-can-they-be-bought
What source of energy will the next great car company focus on? Would you believe gasoline? Tata motors (the second link) is getting ready to sell a super low cost car called the Nano in the United States (third link). They've already started designing a version for America that may cost a little more than the original, but will still undersell all the major brands on sale here now. Perfect if the recession is longer than people expect - unless you work for an American car company, or a Japanese auto plant in America.
Then again, the next source of energy might be electricity, like the Model S - but made in China. Warren Buffet is no pushover, and if he takes this company seriously they deserve to be reckoned with (fourth link). I'm not sure how green the car will turn out to be though - a lot of electricity in America is generated by burning coal.
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M$
Zero-emission power train and platform
Affordable pricing
Distinctive design
Real-world range autonomy - 160km (100 miles)
Connected Mobility: Advanced intelligent transportation (IT) system
It says. The leaf has.
ZERO-EMISSION MOBILITY
Nissan LEAF is powered by laminated compact lithium-ion batteries, which generate power output of over 90kW, while its electric motor delivers 80kW/280Nm
So looking to see most cars like this in the coming of year just not as ugly. Kind of looks like the toyota blade now that I think about it. Not a good looking car either.
http://www.bloggersbase.com/articles/home--living/cars/nissan-unveils-leaf-worlds-first-electric-car-designed-for-affordability-and-real-world-requirements-/
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M$I think the fuel of the future is some kind of bio fuel, my vote is with ethanol. And I don't mean E-85 made from corn, I'm thinking ethanol from Sugar Cane or Switchgrass or another undiscovered plant. Corn is very inefficient, requiring almost as much fossil fuels to make the fertilizer than equivilent energy from ethanol is produced. Sugar Cane and switchgrass contain a lot more energy and require less fertilizer, however they are not subsidized by the government like corn is, so they will not become popular until political opinions change. Also the sugar growers in this country have put pressure on the government to create embargoes on importing sugar, so getting ethanol cheap is impossible.
I think plant based fuels are the way to go, they are the most efficient way of getting energy as they convert sunlight to energy more efficiently than we ever could while removing C02 from the air and looking attractive as they grow.
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M$You can leave an optional "tip" with Mahalo's virtual currency, Mahalo Dollars. If you are asking a difficult question that might require some research, or if you'd like a wide variety of feedback, a higher tip often leads to more answers to your question.
M$Toyota, Honda, and Nissan will be the big three foreign companies.
Plugin Hybrid is the emerging new technology. Pure EV may grow in popularity but the plugin hybrid is expected to be popular. Small 1.5 Liter gas engines provide power to the drive train and electricity for batteries. The ICE engines can be as small as 600 cc, but combined with electric acceleration achieve 0-60 startup speed under 10 seconds and top cruising speeds around 100 mph. Li-Ion batteries improve the range of the vehicle.
I'm expecting plugin Hybrid to be more popular than pure EV.
Tesla will be a support company with its technology.
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M$Over the next few years we're going to see advancements in design and efficiency for motor vehicles leading to better MPG figures all round and improvements in electric vehicles that will put more on the road.
I think for some urban and civic uses its going to be a very long term before battery powered electric cars can be beaten.
In the long term - and we have to think in the long term for this there are performance ceilings and practical issues around batteries that are going to be limiter.
To cure these we the answer is Hydrogen fuel cells, but the costs of getting and handling hydrogen are very high at the moment. This is why no matter what advancements are made hydrogen is going to be take a long time to develop. We can use battery powered cars right now, we can use hybrid cars right now, but Hydrogen needs a large infrastructure to be constructed and that cannot happen over night.
So my view is hydrogen - in the long run. Providing the cost problems can be overcome
Electric for now.
Hybrids which I haven't touched on seem to be a bit of a compromise. Perhaps good for raising awareness and testing technologies, but I don't see how they can really compete against improvements in design and fuels consumption in gas / diesal vehicles or agaisnt pure bred electrics like the Teslas.
Of course technology changes
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M$
Yeah, I think the Daimler partnership is essential for them and will allow them to expand their business. As far as expanding their line, it is a question of seeing how much money they can raise from that specific partnership. Tesla needs baby steps, and can think beyond the model S right now. If that is a sucess, then they can stretch their legs to more models.
Do you think the revenue produced with the Daimler stake and providing them with the tech for their cars in combination with the Model S will eventually payoff enough for Tesla to expand their line?