Will swine flu develop into worldwide pandemic?
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M$4 Answers
The W.H.O. raised the pandemic warning level from 4 to 5 (with the maximum number being 6). 5 on the scale implies that the World Health Organizations thinks a pandemic is imminent.
W.H.O.:
"Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short. "
The virus is spreading rapidly and if the infections keep at the rate they're going then there will be a pandemic. But that doesn't mean we have to panic. The authorities are encouraging everyone to exercise caution and be alert.
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M$
If it's anything like the Spanish flu (more information on this influenza at the bottom of the page) it could spread worldwide and kill as many as 100 million people. (Those are under very rare circumstances, but /anything/ is possible.
It's hard to say right now if it's a certainty, but I would be very cautious. There is always a possibility.
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M$
WHO has raised the alarm level to 5 the second largest and has said Swine flu has all the possibilities to turn in to global pandemic
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8025979.stm
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M$
Mexico hasn't closed its borders. There's a lot of speculation but it's not happened and is probably not going to happen. The Obama administration is against closing the Mexican border.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i2IQtAfam7HWr7aRwpWg2J7KpzFQD97SOIL80
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M$
Sources?
Sorry, too much opinion too little fact.
Perhaps it will make the the definition of a pandemic but the very low rate of transmission in first world countries and the media hype reminds me of the West Nile Virus scares of a few years ago. Cory Doctorow puts the Spanish Flu of 1918 in perspective http://boingboing.hexten.net/2009/04/29/spanish-flu-of-1918.html.
97.5% who were infected survived the pandemic and only 27% of the population caught the flu. This was before we developed our modern medical systems.
The pandemic scare of 1979 is an example of how over reating can cause more harm tha good. I've survived SARS, I'll survive the pandemic of 2009.
http://www.mahalo.com/answers/swine-flu/what-was-the-outcome-of-the-1979-swine-flu-outbreak
