It's pretty hard to tell as there are Fabregas-to-Barca stories every summer.

As far as I can tell all that Cesc himself has said that is that if he ever left Arsenal it would only be for Barcelona. Naturally the media like to give these things a lot more dramatic spin, and they have a habit of putting words into people's mouths, not least by the questions they choose to ask or not ask.

A common media trick is they ask someone: "Would you ever play for Barcelona?" And then when they reply, "Sure, I might someday, it's a great club" they make it sound like the player came out with it all by themselves out of the blue and are pining for a move.

As Barca themselves readily acknowledge, Cesc has a very long term contract with Arsenal (I think to 2014), and he's not going anywhere if Wenger doesn't want him to.

Also, it's not even clear that Cesc would be a starter for Barca, as he certainly is behind Iniesta and Xavi in the Spanish squad, and probably would be for Barca too.

As an Arsenal fan, I'm bored by these kinds of stories, and I'll believe it when I see it.

-- Quote

But sporting director Txiki Begiristain conceded Barca must respect Fabregas's contract, which runs until June 2014.

"It's great news that he wants to come here and I think that one day Cesc will have to come to Barca," said Begiristain.

"I don't know when but I have the impression that he is a Barca style player and that he will enjoy it very much. I wish it was as soon as possible.

"But what matters is Arsenal and what their decision is. They think he is a very important player for them. We have to respect that.

....

And speculation over his return to Spain intensified when Fabregas, in answer to the question "if you leave Arsenal, will it be for Barcelona?", replied "yes".

...

However, Fabregas, who signed an eight-year contract with the Gunners in 2006, added: "I don't know when it will happen. I am happy at Arsenal and I am not in a rush to leave.

-- /Quote

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/a/arsenal/8690067.stm

Basically it's just as likely to the usual media baloney, as anything resembling a real story.

The Arsenal captain will definitely leave his present club to become a member of Spanish champions, Barcelona. The young captain is definitely fed up,enough is enough no matter what Wenger and fans would prefer he is going back home where he belongs.

For me they are three things that will drive the young maestro to Barce
1.Although Arsenal is a fantastic club they are not great as Barcelona. For the past 7 years Arsenal hasn't won any major trophies while Barcelona have won four Spanish leagues and two Champions .
2.Cesc was purchased from Barcelona and he has stated before the only other club he will play for if he leaves Arsenal would be Barcelona.
3.Barcelona and Arsenal play the same similar type of football so he would be right at home if he do go. No worries if the team style of play would what he would prefer.

----quote----
Cesc Fabregas tells Arsene Wenger in 'emotional' face-to-face meeting today that he wants to quit Arsenal for Barcelona
Frenchman tried to convince skipper to stay but his mind is set on going home
----quote----
Information quoted from http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/2565/exclusives/2010/05/18/1931094/cesc-fabregas-tells-arsene-wenger-in-emotional-face-to-face