Why does the Mayan calendar end at 2012?
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Long answer: The Maya used multiple calendar systems for different purposes. The 2012 controversy is based on an interpretation of the Long Count calendar, which was mainly used for accurate dating of historical records and monuments rather than in the daily lives of the Maya. Its dates are essentially a count of days in a modified base-20 notation, with the current cycle starting at 0.0.0.0.0 in 3114 BC. On or about December 21, 2012 (depending on the method used to reconcile the Mayan and Gregorian calendars), the count goes from 12.19.19.17.19 to 13.0.0.0.0 (link includes a Gregorian-to-Mayan conversion applet):
http://www.michielb.nl/maya/calendar.html
Not only is it *not* the end of the Mayan calendar, it is not even the end of the current Long Count cycle. On October 12, 4772, the Long Count date will be 19.19.19.17.19. After that, the Mayan calendar still goes on; 20 baktuns equals 1 piktun, and the next day's date will be 1.0.0.0.0.0, the first day of the second piktun.
Regarding the doomsday predictions themselves, there is no scientific basis for any of them. See my previous answer to a similar question for more information.
http://www.mahalo.com/answers/social-science/does-anyone-here-believes-in-the-2012-end-event
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Since Calendar Round dates can only distinguish in 18,980 days, equivalent to around 52 solar years, the cycle repeats roughly once each lifetime, and thus, a more refined method of dating was needed if history was to be recorded accurately. To measure dates, therefore, over periods longer than 52 years, Mesoamericans devised the Long Count calendar.
By its linear nature, the Long Count was capable of being extended to refer to any date far into the future (or past). This calendar involved the use of a positional notation system, in which each position signified an increasing multiple of the number of days.
The Mesoamerican Long Count calendar forms the basis for a New Age belief, first forecast by José Argüelles, that a cataclysm will take place on or about December 21, 2012, a forecast that mainstream Mayanist scholars consider a misinterpretation, yet is commonly referenced in pop-culture media as the 2012 problem.
For example, Sandra Noble, executive director of the Mesoamerican research organization FAMSI, notes that "for the ancient Maya, it was a huge celebration to make it to the end of a whole cycle". However, she considers the portrayal of December 2012 as a doomsday or cosmic-shift event to be "a complete fabrication and a chance for a lot of people to cash in."
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