Who *originally* came up with the "ten years or 10,000 hours to become an expert" claim?
I want the earliest quote possible, as long as it's clear, straightforward, and backed up by data (not simply a conjecture or estimate).
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M$5 Answers
The formulation of the 10,000 hour "rule" seems to have been derived from a study done by Dr. Ericsson and colleagues that was published in the Pscyological Review in 1993. They looked at the accomplished violinists of Berlin's "Academy of Music," who had been divided into three groups: stars, solid performers, and those who could teach but not make it big. What they found was the amount of practice at each level of quality differed, and it was those stars who had (by age 20) practiced about 10,000 hours. (8,000 or 4,000 for the others, respectively.)
Prior to that study, the 10,000 hour rule could not have existed. I'm not sure about the 10 year rule -- that seems like an extrapolation of some sort, since the research seems to support a need for focused practice for a set number of hours.
From reading Dr. Ericsson's current statements, it sounds (unsurprisingly) that the story around this so called "rule" is more complex. He has further defined it in his research (specifically, that practice has to be focused/driven/useful -- doing something complacently for 10 years does not actually make you an expert).
I hope this is helpful.
http://www.psy.fsu.edu/faculty/ericsson/ericsson.exp.perf.html
Specifically, the study in question appears to be: Ericsson, K. A., R. Th. Krampe, and C. Tesch-Römer, 1993, ‘The role of deliberate practice in the acquisition of expert performance.’ *Psychological Review*, 100: 363-406.
http://abundance-blog.marelisa-online.com/2008/11/17/outliers-10000-hours-f...
Book/article referred to but sadly no longer available (still adds legitimacy; this is what the blogs referenced): http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2008/nov/15/malcolm-gladwell-outliers-extra...
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M$'The idea dates back to work done by Herb Simon in the 1970s. It’s been developed and publicized much further in the decades since, notably by one of Simon’s postdoctoral mentees, Anders Ericsson.'
Here is a blog post discussing it http://michaelnielsen.org/blog/?p=496 and Herb Simon's WikiPedia page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Simon
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M$
It'd be nice to have the quote.
What I've seen from Herb Simon so far (Chase, W. and H. Simon (1973) The Mind's Eye in Chess, pp. 215-281 in Chase, W. Visual Information Processing, New York: Academic Press) was more of the "rough estimate" kind than a stratightforward formulation of a law, rule, or even core hypothesis. Do you know if Ericsson is the one who formulated in a straightforward manner?
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M$http://www.psy.fsu.edu/faculty/ericsson/ericsson.exp.perf.html
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M$
Even Carnegie Mellon researchers agree!
http://www.physorg.com/news118592975.html
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M$
