When was the last combination of Lunar eclipse and Winter Solstice: 456 years ago or 372 years ago? Explain please...
Also, some sources are reporting that the next one after tonight will be in 2094 and others 2485. Why is this particular astronomical event so difficult?
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M$3 Answers
So, what does this have to do with the Winter Solstice Eclipse? Well, documentation of such things was not always available to our modern-day scientists. Many have pieced together journal entries from that time and have combined that with calculations going backward in time. This leaves a great deal of room for error. For instance, if you look at the NASA website, it mentions that Geoff Chester of the U.S. Naval Observatory look at the list of lunar eclipses for the past 2000 years. "Since Year 1, I can only find one previous instance of an eclipse matching the same calendar date as the solstice, and that is 1638 DEC 21," says Chester. (http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/17dec_solsticeeclipse/) However, we do not know who generated the list and how accurate the list is. Mr. Chester states the next one will occur in 2094.
Another reason this event is difficult to predict depends on where you are. For instance, even earthsky.org recognizes that "this is the northernmost total lunar eclipse until December 21, 2485." (http://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/dont-miss-upcoming-solstice-lunar-eclipse-on-december-20-or-21). The key word here is "northernmost". Those of us in the northern hemisphere may not be able to see it until 2485, but that doesn't mean there won't be a total lunar eclipse on the winter solstice until that year.
As for which answer is correct, I'm not sure if anyone can accurately know. I wish I could give you a better answer than that.
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M$
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M$
Read the more information portion at the bottom of the page.
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/17dec_solsticeeclipse/
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M$
This.
I was lazy and just quoted NASA :)
Yes, @Imetlak, these factors are what I have suspected. In particular, it looks as if the NASA guy only knows astronomy and not history, and didn't realize the calendar changed (at different dates in different countries too). Then most news media quoted him. But, it seems to me that an astronomer should and would have been able to calculate all the conjunctions of the Winter Solstice and the full Lunar eclipse and then could have said, say in 1638 or 1638 depending upon the calendar you were using. Instead, it seems this one is looking at the calendar date of Dec 21 whether or not it was the solstice. I think the source saying 1554 took this into account; but, I'm not enough of an astronomer to really say for sure. The contradiction in the future predictions is even more puzzling since we are all on the same calendar now.