3 years, 2 months ago
What will happen if Japan shoots down the North Korean satellite/missile?
Does Pyongyang really risk going to war over this, or is this just a bluff?
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M$4 Answers
It's a complete bluff, or more precisely, an attention seeking maneuver.
Every year, the US and South Korean hold a joint military exercise of some kind. This exercise is not of any big importance, it's a sort of keeping up presence, a posture, that kind of thing. The North files an official complaint, every year, with the UN Security Council where they get routinely ignored. It's like a ritual that's been going on for decade or longer.
This year the North expected, right or wrong, to see some change, because they recently dismantled some alleged nuclear facilities. Most importantly, they want to see something concrete in return, like easing the trade sanctions, and they want it quick, because, in actual reality, North Korea is a starving nation.
However, their recent complaint about this year's maneuvers at the other side got ignored again, business as usual. Now they have to misbehave in order to get some attention again.
As for, what if Japan shoots down the thing, I don't think Japanese are even considering shooting at it. Why would they?
Every year, the US and South Korean hold a joint military exercise of some kind. This exercise is not of any big importance, it's a sort of keeping up presence, a posture, that kind of thing. The North files an official complaint, every year, with the UN Security Council where they get routinely ignored. It's like a ritual that's been going on for decade or longer.
This year the North expected, right or wrong, to see some change, because they recently dismantled some alleged nuclear facilities. Most importantly, they want to see something concrete in return, like easing the trade sanctions, and they want it quick, because, in actual reality, North Korea is a starving nation.
However, their recent complaint about this year's maneuvers at the other side got ignored again, business as usual. Now they have to misbehave in order to get some attention again.
As for, what if Japan shoots down the thing, I don't think Japanese are even considering shooting at it. Why would they?
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M$Report Abuse
On NK: I think it's become really hard to predict North Korea. I've been saying for years that NK is no longer a rational actor and should not be treated as one. So whether or not they shoot the rocket, it's a toss up. I think they might. it wouldn't be the first time they do "tests". Honestly, North Korea is being like a naughty child and they should be treated as such.
On Japan: Japan is a rational actor so they shouldn't risk conflict by shooting down the rocket unless it posed a real threat. So short answer if NK did shoot the rocket Japan will most likely not shoot it down if it was not posing a risk. I actually don't know if Japan can legally justify shooting it down if it isn't falling towards Japan or posing a risk.
My prediction is that NK will probably not shoot the rocket and if they do it will probably not be intercepted and they will get a slap on the wrist for it by the UN Security Council.
On Japan: Japan is a rational actor so they shouldn't risk conflict by shooting down the rocket unless it posed a real threat. So short answer if NK did shoot the rocket Japan will most likely not shoot it down if it was not posing a risk. I actually don't know if Japan can legally justify shooting it down if it isn't falling towards Japan or posing a risk.
My prediction is that NK will probably not shoot the rocket and if they do it will probably not be intercepted and they will get a slap on the wrist for it by the UN Security Council.
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M$
The guardian reports the following...
"The boosters would fall into the Sea of Japan – about 75 miles (120km) from Japan's north-west coast – and the Pacific Ocean.
Officials in Tokyo said they reserved the right to destroy any threatening object in mid-flight, despite North Korean warnings that it would consider such a move an act of war.
"Under our law, we can intercept any object if it is falling towards Japan, including any attacks on Japan, for our security," Takeo Kawamura, the chief cabinet secretary, told reporters.
Despite repeated assurances from Pyongyang that the rocket is a vital part of North Korea's space programme, other countries in the region suspect the hardware is a Taepodong-2 ballistic missile.
South Korean intelligence has reported a build-up of activity in recent days near the missile's launch pad at Musudan-ri base on its neighbour's north-east coast.
Any missile launch, even one intended to put a satellite into orbit, would represent a snub to the US administration, which has repeatedly invited the communist state to return to negotiations over its nuclear weapons programme.
Last month the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, urged the north to cancel the launch, which US officials say would be in violation of a 2006 UN security council resolution."
Based on that information it appears that Japan will shoot down anything launched that "is falling towards Japan..." "The UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, said a missile or satellite launch would "threaten the peace and stability in the region." This infers that they understand that launching will result in some kind of conflict. This conflict could be verbal or physical depending on the often irrational reactions of North Korea.
What i think is going to happen is they will launch... If they have no corrected the trajectory of the rocket and it is perceived by Japan to enter their air space or "is falling towards Japan..." Japan will respond to the launch and destroy it. What I would project the outcome of that action to be is that North Korea would posture and not much else. They know that if they were to get drawn into a conflict with Japan the U.S would become involved and South Korea would support our actions. This would give us a solid base of operations in Korea from which to strike at North Korea. They are not going to launch a massive drive to South Korea simply because the worlds largest mine field is between South and North Korea.
Now there is the possibility that China might lend support to North Korea and that could be a problem...IT would be a problem for Japan and the U.S. as China has a lot of economic influence and China has a military strength of 7,024,000 personnel. The U.S ranks number two with 3,385,400 personnel and we are spread all over the map most notably in Iraq, Afghanistan... So if we were to break down our fronts…
We have one with Iraq facing Iran…
We have one with Afghanistan facing Iran…
We have one with Afghanistan facing Pakistan… (Yes I think we have a potential conflict with Pakistan coming…)
We have one with South Korea facing North Korea…
We also have entire brigades being called home for “possible and likely” domestic policing. (I might add a violation of the Posse Comitatus Act. But, that is a separate topic.)
China’s military is primarily in china. China could call in our debt and that would have serious impacts on our economy. I digress… As you see China could make a bad situation worse.
I would support the position of posturing by North Korea. I find it unlikely they would start a war with Japan unless they have the support of China. Because North Korea would not like to find itself in a war with Japan because the U.S. would get involved and even in our weakened state we could own North Korea in a territorial war. North Korea claims to have nuclear weapons however North Korea's total range with its No Dong missiles is 1,300 km(Or, 807.78255 miles). The BM-25 is a North Korean designed long-range ballistic missile with range capabilities of up to 1,550 miles (roughly 2,500 km), and could carry a nuclear warhead. North Korea has also developed the Taepodong-1 missile, which has a range of 2,000 km(1 242.74238 miles), but it is not yet in full deployment. With the development of the Taepodong-2 missile, with an expected range of 5,000-6,000km (3 106.85596 miles to 3 728.22715 miles), North Korea could hypothetically deliver a warhead to almost all countries in Southeast Asia, as well as the western side of North America.. I also doubt that they would use nuclear missiles in it's own region as there are not many countries that want to dirty their back yard.
"The boosters would fall into the Sea of Japan – about 75 miles (120km) from Japan's north-west coast – and the Pacific Ocean.
Officials in Tokyo said they reserved the right to destroy any threatening object in mid-flight, despite North Korean warnings that it would consider such a move an act of war.
"Under our law, we can intercept any object if it is falling towards Japan, including any attacks on Japan, for our security," Takeo Kawamura, the chief cabinet secretary, told reporters.
Despite repeated assurances from Pyongyang that the rocket is a vital part of North Korea's space programme, other countries in the region suspect the hardware is a Taepodong-2 ballistic missile.
South Korean intelligence has reported a build-up of activity in recent days near the missile's launch pad at Musudan-ri base on its neighbour's north-east coast.
Any missile launch, even one intended to put a satellite into orbit, would represent a snub to the US administration, which has repeatedly invited the communist state to return to negotiations over its nuclear weapons programme.
Last month the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, urged the north to cancel the launch, which US officials say would be in violation of a 2006 UN security council resolution."
Based on that information it appears that Japan will shoot down anything launched that "is falling towards Japan..." "The UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, said a missile or satellite launch would "threaten the peace and stability in the region." This infers that they understand that launching will result in some kind of conflict. This conflict could be verbal or physical depending on the often irrational reactions of North Korea.
What i think is going to happen is they will launch... If they have no corrected the trajectory of the rocket and it is perceived by Japan to enter their air space or "is falling towards Japan..." Japan will respond to the launch and destroy it. What I would project the outcome of that action to be is that North Korea would posture and not much else. They know that if they were to get drawn into a conflict with Japan the U.S would become involved and South Korea would support our actions. This would give us a solid base of operations in Korea from which to strike at North Korea. They are not going to launch a massive drive to South Korea simply because the worlds largest mine field is between South and North Korea.
Now there is the possibility that China might lend support to North Korea and that could be a problem...IT would be a problem for Japan and the U.S. as China has a lot of economic influence and China has a military strength of 7,024,000 personnel. The U.S ranks number two with 3,385,400 personnel and we are spread all over the map most notably in Iraq, Afghanistan... So if we were to break down our fronts…
We have one with Iraq facing Iran…
We have one with Afghanistan facing Iran…
We have one with Afghanistan facing Pakistan… (Yes I think we have a potential conflict with Pakistan coming…)
We have one with South Korea facing North Korea…
We also have entire brigades being called home for “possible and likely” domestic policing. (I might add a violation of the Posse Comitatus Act. But, that is a separate topic.)
China’s military is primarily in china. China could call in our debt and that would have serious impacts on our economy. I digress… As you see China could make a bad situation worse.
I would support the position of posturing by North Korea. I find it unlikely they would start a war with Japan unless they have the support of China. Because North Korea would not like to find itself in a war with Japan because the U.S. would get involved and even in our weakened state we could own North Korea in a territorial war. North Korea claims to have nuclear weapons however North Korea's total range with its No Dong missiles is 1,300 km(Or, 807.78255 miles). The BM-25 is a North Korean designed long-range ballistic missile with range capabilities of up to 1,550 miles (roughly 2,500 km), and could carry a nuclear warhead. North Korea has also developed the Taepodong-1 missile, which has a range of 2,000 km(1 242.74238 miles), but it is not yet in full deployment. With the development of the Taepodong-2 missile, with an expected range of 5,000-6,000km (3 106.85596 miles to 3 728.22715 miles), North Korea could hypothetically deliver a warhead to almost all countries in Southeast Asia, as well as the western side of North America.. I also doubt that they would use nuclear missiles in it's own region as there are not many countries that want to dirty their back yard.
You can leave an optional "tip" with Mahalo's virtual currency, Mahalo Dollars. If you are asking a difficult question that might require some research, or if you'd like a wide variety of feedback, a higher tip often leads to more answers to your question.
M$
I predict that North Korea will launch the missile.
Something will go wrong, as usual.
Japan will shoot it down.
The United States will pay reparations.
Something will go wrong, as usual.
Japan will shoot it down.
The United States will pay reparations.
You can leave an optional "tip" with Mahalo's virtual currency, Mahalo Dollars. If you are asking a difficult question that might require some research, or if you'd like a wide variety of feedback, a higher tip often leads to more answers to your question.
M$
