What exactly is going on in Egypt right now? Why are there so many protests and what's going to happen?
Why is there so much press about conflicts and protest in Egypt? What has happened to their government, and citizens, to provoke curfews, bloodshed and military action?
What's likely to happen over the next few weeks - will there be an amicable resolution in any way?
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M$8 Answers
We now see that the Tunisian example is spreading civil unrest over to a number of Arab countries, all of which have long serving presidents and often undemocratic government systems that place a large number of people into poverty and despair.
What will likely happen? Egypt has a population of over 80 million, and a movement like this is unlikely to stop by itself. Even in Tunisia, people are still angry even with the president out of the country. People want change, they want to live a better life. Probably the Egyptian president will have to resign, and this is sending strong signals to all long standing leaders in the region. I predict this will have serious effects and will, in the long term, establish new democracies in the near east. We could be observing the first steps on a true revolution in the Muslim world, with poor people claiming their place in corrupt societies.
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M$I think the simple answer to this question would be...its what the press does,ratings, headlines, breaking news etc.(where theres smoke or a car chase you can expect a news chopper is close by)
Is the press reporting responsibly?
Probably not as well as it should. The press prefers the attention grabbers and reporting the causes is not nearly as sensational as reporting the visual events that are snowballing in the streets of Egypt's cities at the moment.
However (due to the fact that the Egyptian government under the leadership of President Hosni Mubarak has fairly effectively shut down all communications at present) the world is at least getting details of the current situation via the news agencies who are on scene and have independant resources available to them allowing them to report the unfolding events.
How long these agencies are allowed to continue reporting is anybodies guess at the moment.
"What has happened to their government, and citizens, to provoke curfews, bloodshed and military action?"
From my understanding the political discontent has been growing in intensity for the last few years in Egypt, especially over the past year.
The primary causes being government corruption and mismanagement, poverty and food prices, (nearly 50% of Egypt's population live under or close to the poverty line, which according to the Wolrd Bank is $2 a day) high unemployment (i've read as high as 40% ) police brutality and most recently the sectarian strife between the Muslim and Christian populations.
These most recent public protests are thought to be inspired by the uprising in Tunisia (which resulted in the ouster of the Tunisian government under the leadership of president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali)which lead to protests in Egypt calling for the removal of Mubarak from power and a solution to the grinding poverty, rising prices and high unemployment.
Since the beginning of this week the protests have been intensifing in violence and as of today, Friday jan 28th, with the shut down of public communications and the imposition of a curfew and increased police brutality the whole country appears to be on the brink of total chaos and revolution.
The latest I have heard has been the situation has deteriorated from rock throwing against tear gas and rubber bullets to real bullets and deaths being reported on both sides.
Its a very fluid situation and is rapidly changing as I type this.
What's likely to happen over the next few weeks - will there be an amicable resolution in any way?
It looks like the people of Egypt want the Mubarak regime gone and it doesn't look like they are going to back down until that takes place...what happens after, well the world is watching to see.
Hopefully tempers will calm and resolution to the predicament in Egypt can be reached peacefully...
Personally I don't think this will happen and I believe the violence is going to continue to escalate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xWiBCIxjIk
Sources:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41267995/ns/world_news-mideast/n_africa/
http://www.forbes.com/2011/01/28/egypt-riots-middle-east-opinions-contributors-michael-rubin.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12313145
http://www.france24.com/en/20110128-egypt-cuts-internet-police-elite-unit-protests-mubarak-el-baradei-muslim-brotherhood?ns_mchannel=SEM&ns_source=Google&ns_campaign=France%2024%20US_Africa&ns_linkname=Egypt%20-%20Street%20protests_riots%20egypt&ns_fee=0&gclid=CM7N_s_x3aYCFQTrKgodNX5h0A
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M$1. President has not appeared to the public, to make a statement.
2. Rumours of his son and family, leaving the country
3. No new updates on position of tourists, what steps have been taken for their safety. As we know, Egypt is a huge tourist destination)
4. Wide spread destruction, and army has been called, curfews installed, but difficult to define what further steps will be taken.
I asked this question earlier on, and think this is a very serious situation.
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M$The people want the current regime out.
What's likely to happen? Hopefully and realistically, more blood shed so that a revolution will happen.
Half the population is under 35 with little opportunities to aspire to a civil servant job with a university degree.
Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/01/31/world/main7302383.shtml
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M$http://www.facebook.com/aljazeera?v=wall Check also the 'others' posts
And here: http://twitter.com/#!/avinunu/reporters-in-egypt/
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M$The Catalyst: Tunisia a country in Northern Africa was ruled by a repressive and dictatorial regime led by President Ben Ali. At the end of 2010, a series of riots broke out throughout Tunisia, collectively termed the "Jasmine Revolution." The root causes are considered to be mass unemployment, widespread corruption, appalling living conditions and the governments propensity to squash free speech. This resulted in President Ben Ali dissolving the government, a victory for the revolutionaries.
Regional results: In the region, the success of the Tunisian revolution led to widespread instability. It had previously been considered axiomatic that regional dictatorships were too stable to fall. The Tunisian revolution proved otherwise and soon protests began all over the region, most strongly in Algeria, Yemen and Egypt.
Egypt: The Egyptian youth were mobilized by the example set by the Tunisian revolution. Many suggested that the upcoming 25th of January 'National Police Day' be instead used as a massive nation wide protest against corruption. Other causes for the unrest have been the widespread brutality of the Egyptian police and military (Egypt is basically a dictatorship because the country is under 'Emergency law' and has been since 1967), the crippling poverty in the country and President Mubarak himself.
The Egyptian Response: The Egyptian police and military have been very heavy handed in responding to the protests. A huge number of protestors have been beaten by police and plain clothes secret police officers. Three have been confirmed killed at the time of this writing. In an effort to stop the protestors utilizing Facebook and Twitter to organize and get their message out, Egypt shut down access to those two sites and now, basically unplugged the country from the internet entirely.
Friday: This Friday will see a pivotal moment in the Egyptian revolution as a mass protest has been called after traditional Friday prayers. The Egyptians have called for a "Million Man March" but the chaos in the country and the unpredictability of what's going on makes it difficult to even guess at what will actually transpire.
Predictions: Analysts are split as to what will happen in Egypt. There seems to be a concensus that unlike Tunisia, whose military was underpaid, had terrible morale and had little stake in the Police State, the Egyptian army is far more likely to support the Mubarak regime. If the support of the armed forces wavers (as the police support already has, on occasion) then a very real revolution is on the cards.
The U.S in the Region: If you're American and wondering, the U.S has a lot of skin in the game. Mubarak has received a huge amount of aid from the United States. Egypt is one of the only Middle Eastern countries to have something approaching a lasting peace treaty with Israel, and Mubarak is generally considered to be a 'friend of the West' by the standards of his fellow leaders in the region. Many of the protesters see the U.S as propping up Mubarak's regime. If the revolution succeeds, any popular democracy in Egypt is almost certainly going produce leaders with anti-American platforms.
Hope that helps and I really hope I didn't get too much wrong.
Death toll: The current official death toll for the protests is 26. My heart goes out to the victims and their families.
The Egyptian Government Pulls the Communication Plug: Concerned that the protesters were using Twitter and Facebook to organize themselves and get their message out both inside and outside Egypt, the government there blocked access to those services. When this proved insufficient they ordered telecommunications companies to disable SMS services and Blackberry Communications.
Finally, the Egyptian Government essentially unplugged the entire country from the Internet.
Mubarak disbands cabinet: The Egyptian government is vaguely similar in structure at the top to that of the U.S in that it consists of a President and a Cabinet responsible for various portfolios. Refusing to step down himself, President Mubarak has ordered his entire Cabinet to resign, effectively firing them, and announced plans to appoint a new government. Mubarak delivered a speech in which he pledged a more open democracy going forward. Analysts seem to think this won't be nearly enough to satisfy the protesters.
Opposition Leader Mohammed ElBaradei: Mohammed ElBaradei returned to Egypt on January 27th. Dr ElBaradei has previously served as Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (the people responsible for monitoring nuclear proliferation and inspecting nuclear power plants all over the world) and holds a Noble Peace Prize. As early as 2009 he was considered a potential candidate to lead an opposition against President Mubarak in Egypt but made no truly definite moves to do so until these uprisings began. He is considered a democratic reformer and is viewed as a potent symbol for the revolution. Since arriving in Egypt, he has been placed under house arrest by the Egyptian government.
Wikileaks, Anonymous and Operation Egypt:Wikileaks has stated their intention to soon release thousands of documents relating to the Egyptian regime (this may have already happened, haven't had a chance to look). The international hacker coalition known as 'Anonymous' and mostly recently famous for their organization of cyber protests in support of Wikileaks have begun "Operation Egypt." The goal is to prevent the Egyptian government from isolating the protesters within the country and to get the word out as much as possible. How successful this will be with Egypt almost disconnected from the web is still in doubt.
The White House Weighs in: President Obama has given a short statement on the Egyptian situation. Essentially he said that these protests require an agenda of reform from the Mubarak government as a response. The language used is significant because President Obama essentially backed the Mubarak government in the short term, while pressing for reform.
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M$President Hosni Mubarak, in power since 1981. Mubarak, as president, is head of
State of Egypt, while Mohieddin is the head of government. The prime minister and the cabinet ministers are appointed by the president, who can undo the cabinet and call new
members.
The protests, which spread across the country, aim to force the departure of Mubarak - in
power since 1981.
The government declared a curfew in the country yesterday and put the army on the streets of capital, Cairo, to ensure order in the streets. The ring has now been expanded, and now goes 16h (11h GMT) at 8am (3am GMT). The military has asked the population
Egyptian avoid participating in public demonstrations and obey the curfew.
In a statement, the ministry argues that the claim is justified by the "actions of
sabotage and violence "that are being recorded in the last hours in the country, and warns
that violators "will face judicial sanctions."
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M$The U.S. wants Egypt as an ally and it's not possible with an ever-strengthening dictatorship. The U.S. always promotes democracy. Since travel and the internet are so easily accessible to everyone, the young, particularly college students in Egypt, are in favor of a democratic government. The justice and freedom of democracy appeals to them.
The situation in Egypt could not happen here. Many of the men are galloping around on camels, armed with various weapons. The entire culture of Egypt differs from the U.S. and therefore their conflicts are not always easily understandable. The U.S. is one of the most stable governments in the world. Some countries' governments always stand the risk of being overthrown. Democracy is a very new concept to the middle east, after centuries of strict authoritarian rulerships of all of the countries. There is no separation of church (or religion) and state in those countries.
After strenuous battles, Egypt will eventually become a democratic society, with equal rights for everyone. The government will be by and for the people. Being a theocracy would not enable Egypt to become part of the democratic world, so they will work to keep their religion stable while trying to see religion and government as two separate entities.
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M$