What does it mean "conservative" in statistics? Provide examples
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Example: 'It is likely, given the state of prison incident recordkeeping, that these returning escapees are not counted as returning from escape or AWOL status. The capture rates provided by three surveys should be considered conservative estimates" ("The Prison Journal")
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M$2 Answers
In your case, that is a conservative statistic because the statistic they gave for the capture rate is probably better than the actual capture rate.
Self
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M$
It is the "safe side" of the estimation.
However, I am weary with this word, because I found out that some people use it totally differently.
See the example of the numbers of Buddhists in China in the link below where the meaning seems opposite.
This being said, I am not a native English speaker, so ...
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M$
That definition agrees with the definition of conservative I gave. According to the website, the number of Buddhists in China is between 500 Million and 1.2 Billion. 500 Million would be the conservative estimate since, according to them the actual number of Buddhists in China is likely more
A note on these numbers: These numbers show conservapedia's bias. These statistics would imply that somewhere between 50% and 90% of Chinese citizens are Buddhists. Their source, however, insists that much of the population is being ignored without much defense of that statement. Given the highly disputed statistics about this particular group, and given that the statistics taken range as extremely as 8% to 80% of the population, the site sourced isn't strong enough to state such statistics as 50% being a conservative estimate.
