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2 years, 5 months ago about Bowl Projections

UCLA vs temple - who will win?

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kerryk | 2 years, 5 months ago
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UCLA was 6-6 and Temple 9-3 during the season.

Comparing schedules :

UCLA defeated San Diego State (4 wins, 8 losses), Tennessee (7 wins, 5 losses), Washington (5 wins, 7 losses), Kansas State (6 wins, 6 losses), Washington State (1 win, 11 losses), Arizona State (4 wins, 8 losses)

Their wins came against opponents with a combined record of 27 wins, 45 losses

They lost to Stanford (8-4), Oregon (10-2), California (8-4), Oregon State (8-4) and USC (8-4)

Their losses came against opponents with a combined record of 42-18

Overall record of opponents faced : 69 wins, 63 losses

Temple defeated Buffalo (5-7), Eastern Michigan (0-12), Ball State (2-10), Toledo (5-7), Miami (OH) (1-11), Akron (3-9), Kent State (5-7), Army (5-7), Navy (9-4)

Their wins came against opponents with a combined record of 35 wins, 74 losses

They lost to Villanova (9-1), Penn State (10-2) and Ohio (9-4)

Their losses came against opponents with a combined record of 28-7

Overall record of opponents faced: 63 wins, 81 losses

Although Temple had a better record in the regular season, it's clear their overall schedule was weaker than UCLA's. UCLA's wins came against teams with a combined .375 winning percentage compared to Temple's .321.

UCLA scored 256 points and allowed 255, for an average of 21.3 points per game and 21.3 points allowed per game. Their opponents combined to average 27.4 points per game and allow 25.1 points per game.

So UCLA held opponents to 6 points below their season average while scoring 3.8 points below what their opponents yield per game. That is a net of +2.2 in UCLA's favor.

Temple scored 363 points and allowed 260 points, for an average of 30.3 points per game scored and 21.7 points per game allowed. Their opponents combined for an average of 23.0 points per game and 24.9 points per game allowed.

So Temple held opponets to 1.3 points below their season average while scoring 5.4 points per game more for a +6.7 points in Temple's favor

If going stictly on points per game and points allowed, I'd calculate Temple to score 24 against UCLA and UCLA to score 17 against Temple.

Figuring into the equation that UCLA played in a tougher conference adds a few points to what I feel UCLA will score in the game.

Having said all that, I predict a close game and perhaps a win for Temple in a bowl game, 24-21

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/clubhouse?teamId=218
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/clubhouse?teamId=26

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