the market seems to have gone up slightly in the last two weeks . premature? http://bit.ly/Byvg
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M$3 Answers
The main thing people are worried about is the financial sector. The financials created this mess, and many people think we won't pull out until they get healthy again. For the first 2 months of the year, the financials were profitable. See http://tinyurl.com/df8dy8. Unfortunately, even though they are in the black now, we don't know how many toxic assets they have on their books. So if they make a few billion in profit this quarter, but they have to write down another $50 billion in bad assets, the market isn't going to continue its rebound. Wait for a month or so for Citibank, Bank of America, and the rest of the big financials to make their quarterly report and see how many bad assets they have on their books. The financials should lead the recovery.
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M$
I think the worst is over. I do not think that we will go under 7000 on the DOW again, but I do think that the lower 7000's is a range that will be tested over and over until the end of the year.
An educated guess
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M$
Also, there is now plenty of money for banks to lend. They're just scared to lend it. This is exactly what put the U.K. in a catatonic state last summer. Sounds to me like the bankers' pendulum is swinging the exact opposite direction, from lending too easily to not at all, but it's starting to normalize a little.
The Kiplinger Washington Newsletter predicted this over a week ago.
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M$
