Next Question
RSS
The Bill James Projection Tool on ESPN is a fairly simple but accurate method to project career stats. It can be found here:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/assessments
Using Clemente's stats, the tool projects he would have played about 2.5 more years, at an average of 142.5 hits/year. This would result in 3356 hits for his career, with a 21.3% chance to reach 3500.
However, there are a number of factors the tool doesn't take into account - one of the most significant, in this case, may be the likelihood that Clemente could continue to find employment. I think that given Clemente's hall of fame career and reputation as a generous and caring individual, along with all the community service work he did, would have made him more attractive to teams in the late stages of his career, and therefore more likely to get playing time than your average 38-40 year old.
So my best guess, taken in tandem with the projection, would be about a 35-40% chance of reaching 3500 hits.
Source(s):
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/assessments?age=37&careerTotal=3000...
Permalink | Report
If he averaged 166 hits a year, he could have done it in three years, but the trend in his last five years was to average only 152 hits per season.
If he averaged 125 hits a year, he could have done it in four years. This seems like the more likely scenario, given what his age would have been. You would have to assume that as he approached 40, he might have gotten injured and played fewer games, but with only having to average 125 hits, he should have easily hit 3500 hits.
Source(s):
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero01.shtml
Permalink | Report
Answered Question
June 09, 2009 06:15 PM
If he had not tragically died in a plane crash, what would Roberto Clemente's chances have been to reach 3500 base hits?
My M$ balance is not updating from Paypal... I intended to tip $2 for the best answer, and will still do so.
Even though I grew up in Chicago, Roberto Clemente was one of my favorite baseball players. Jack Brickhouse, the legendary Cubs TV broadcaster, always made a point of discussing Clemente at length when the Cubs and Pirates played. He died after the 1972 season. Give me your best researched estimate as to if he would have amassed 500 more hits if he had survived.
Even though I grew up in Chicago, Roberto Clemente was one of my favorite baseball players. Jack Brickhouse, the legendary Cubs TV broadcaster, always made a point of discussing Clemente at length when the Cubs and Pirates played. He died after the 1972 season. Give me your best researched estimate as to if he would have amassed 500 more hits if he had survived.
Interesting Question?
Yes (0)
No (0)
RSS
Best Answer Chosen by Asker
| June 09, 2009 06:39 PM |
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/assessments
Using Clemente's stats, the tool projects he would have played about 2.5 more years, at an average of 142.5 hits/year. This would result in 3356 hits for his career, with a 21.3% chance to reach 3500.
However, there are a number of factors the tool doesn't take into account - one of the most significant, in this case, may be the likelihood that Clemente could continue to find employment. I think that given Clemente's hall of fame career and reputation as a generous and caring individual, along with all the community service work he did, would have made him more attractive to teams in the late stages of his career, and therefore more likely to get playing time than your average 38-40 year old.
So my best guess, taken in tandem with the projection, would be about a 35-40% chance of reaching 3500 hits.
Source(s):
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/assessments?age=37&careerTotal=3000...
| Asker's Rating: |
• The other interesting thing is that if he played 3 more years, then it would have been 1976 and there was expansion. While neither Seattle nor Toronto have large Puerto Rican communities, a guy like Clemente could have been the face of an expansion team. And if not, expansion would have opened up enough job openings elsewhere for a NL deluxe pinch-hitter or an AL part-time DH.
Permalink | Report
Reply
Other Answers (1)
June 09, 2009 06:35 PM
He was 37 when he died and would have had to play probably 3-4 more years to reach 3500. If he averaged 166 hits a year, he could have done it in three years, but the trend in his last five years was to average only 152 hits per season.
If he averaged 125 hits a year, he could have done it in four years. This seems like the more likely scenario, given what his age would have been. You would have to assume that as he approached 40, he might have gotten injured and played fewer games, but with only having to average 125 hits, he should have easily hit 3500 hits.
Source(s):
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero01.shtml
Permalink | Report
Reply
Answer this Question
Related Questions
Ask a Question
Buy Mahalo Dollars with Credit Card or PayPal
Top Members
Most Popular Tags
Categories
- Anonymous
-
Arts & Design
-
Beauty & Style
-
Books & Authors
-
Business
-
Cars & Transportation
-
Consumer Electronics
- Coupons Deals
-
Education
-
Entertainment
-
Environment
-
Fitness
-
Food & Drink
- From Email
- From Iphone
- From Twitter
-
Health
-
History
-
Hobbies
-
Home & Garden
-
How Tos
-
Humor
-
Jobs
-
Legal
-
Local
-
Love & Relationships
-
Mahalo Answers Community
-
Money
-
Music
-
News
-
NSFW
-
Parenting
-
Pets
-
Science & Mathematics
-
Services
-
Shopping
-
Social Science
-
Society & Culture
-
Sports
-
Technology & Internet
-
Travel
-
Video Games
Welcome New Members
- rameshshrestha, November 24, 2009 10:12 AM
- flamingvideos, November 24, 2009 10:10 AM
- cuteh16, November 24, 2009 10:03 AM
- mohammaditani, November 24, 2009 09:39 AM
- joselyn, November 24, 2009 09:37 AM
Mahalo Dollars are the currency of Mahalo Answers.
Each Mahalo Dollar costs $1.
Once you earn more than 40 Mahalo Dollars, you can request to be paid via PayPal. Each Mahalo Dollar is currently worth $0.75 when paid out via PayPal. Learn More
