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2 years, 11 months ago via Twitter about West Nile Virus

So what should we be more afraid of: Swine flu, bird flu or West Nile?

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metalsand | 2 years, 11 months ago
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We really don't need to worry about any of that, because of the advances in technology. In fact, you need to worry about the technology before you worry about the problem! (global warming, pollution, ozone hole)

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badaspie | 2 years, 11 months ago view on twitter
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Your risk from a disease depends on its distribution, ease of transmission, and severity:

Distribution: Of your three choices, the two types of flu can occur worldwide, while the distribution of West Nile virus is somewhat limited by the cold intolerance of the mosquitos which carry the disease.

Transmission: The current H1N1 "swine flu" (actually a combination of human, swine, and avian flu genes) is easily spread among humans by close contact, while West Nile requires an insect vector and the typical avian flu (H5N1) is only rarely transmitted to humans.

Severity: H1N1 flu currently has a worldwide mortality rate of less than 0.6%, compared to West Nile's 1% to 3% and avian flu's approximately 60% mortality rate in humans.

At the moment, since avian flu is only rarely transmitted to humans, I would personally consider West Nile the greatest threat of your three choices. However, there is an additional factor to consider: All viruses can mutate quickly, but flu viruses can share and rearrange their DNA to form new strains to which we have no immunity. If an avian flu virus with a 60% mortality rate becomes contagious among humans, that could be frightening to the extreme.

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