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Wikipedia's list of emerging technologies is a good place to start - see the references. Here's my favorites from among them with a couple additional added not from the list.
1. 3D printers in most people's homes - When you break a dish or glass, the 3D printer can make a new one. It will find all kinds of uses. Today already you can get a primitive one for $2000 and for $5000, you can get one that "prints" excellent shapes in resins/plastics. Soon cheap metal printing ones will become available and then maybe glass too. It will be great fun for kids too.
2. Search engines that search by visual similarity to uploaded pictures - If there is information attached to the returned image matches, then the uploaded pictures can be identified. So say with a cell phone you can take a picture of a landmark and get it identified as to what famous thing it is, say which Mountain you are staring out at from your train window.
3. Tweel is Michelin's tire and wheel hybrid - It never goes flat and can run even if heavily damaged. It has no air and has a spoke design like a bicycle tire except the spokes are flexible. It is too noisy and vibration prone above 50 mph, but has immediate uses in the construction trade and military.
4. Natural gas cars and home based fill up solutions - Honda is already selling natural gas powered Civics in large areas of the US for only $25,000. A home based fill up station that taps into your home gas line is already available for $4,000. If you buy a new Civic and home "Phillup" station made by FuelMaker, you can also get something like $5,000 in tax credit from the IRS alone.
5. Biologist will realize their current assumptions about genetics are deeply flawed. This is happening already. Two organisms like twins can be identical genetically but very different physically because the RNA and proteins of the original first cells that made up the two individuals were different, so genes get expressed differently. Also just as human family trees are actually webs, due to the requirement of a mother and father for all children, it will be discovered that the production of new species often requires a mother and father hybridization event. So the family tree of life will turn out to be a web too, not a fanned out tree produced by the accumulation of favorable or at least non-injurous mutations. This is already known to be true of the family tree of bacteria, where distantly related species have been know to have exchanged genetic material either directly or by agents of viruses.
6. Batteries that last much longer and charge much faster. Already early in 2009 Boston Power and HP are offering laptop upgrades for a new type of Lithium battery whose charge last 3 times longer, charges in half the time, and is warrantied for three years, longer than any current Lithium chargeable battery on the market.
7. Helmets for the blind that with electromagnetism will manipulate those areas of the brain naturally hard wired from birth for use in vision, in order to display virtual images captured on camera in cased in the helmet. In other word, non-invasive artificial eyes for the blind. Already Dr. Peter Meijer has developed a system that lets you see with vision. A sort of radar bounces sound waves off objects. After awhile, the blind or blinded person begins to naturally see fairly good representations of the shapes in front of them "in their mind's eye" so much so, they can forget they have the system attached, and take for granted they are now "seeing".
8. Medical advances such as knowing all the genetic diseases one has, real life prolonging drugs like Resveritol and SRT-1720, and real pinpointed remedies for genetic and bad lifestyle diseases such as schizophrenia and obesity.
9. LED lamps will come down in price so they replace the messy and toxic compact fluorescent and the annoyingly short lived conventional light bulbs.
Source(s):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_emerging_technologies
http://www.desktopfactory.com/our_product/ - $5000 desktop 3D printer that makes "prototypes" from composite plastic powder.
http://www.reprap.org/bin/view/Main/ItemsMade - supposed to be an open source 3D printer machine you can make for around $2000.
http://web.archive.org/web/20060528021519/www.shouldexist.org/story/2004/1/... - my description of an image identification search engine.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tweel - Michelin's tire and wheel hybrid
http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-gx/ - natural gas powered Honda Civic being possibly being sold in many areas of the US, no longer just in California and New York for $25,000
http://myphill.com/index.htm - natural gas fill up appliance available for $4,000.
http://www.greencardc.com/home/default.asp - DC area green car solution with Honda Civics and Phillups gas appliances.
http://genealogyoflife.com/ - my site that uses gedcom based genealogy files of half of the known named species to display the species tree of life like a human tree of life. The software allows for suggestions for historical hybridization-speciation events by any user.
http://www.boston-power.com/boston-power-announces-hp-as-first-customer-to-... - new greatly improved lithium batteries.
http://www.artificialvision.com/ - Dr. Peter B.L. Meijer's sonar eyes website.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3171226.stm - BBC's article on the subject.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SRT1720 - SRT1720 is a newly discovered drug that acts in the same way as Resveritol but is 1000 times more potent.
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In addition, I think that the medical community will start seeing more and more links to odd medical conditions that are linked to GMO crops.
And I think GMO crops will wipe out many food crops, making the price of food skyrocket. Over half of all grain crops are already GMO: guess what food commodity went highest last summer? And was behind the price hikes of grain-fed animal products?
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Source(s):
Prescience.
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2. Bio-mass generation of bio-diesel (waste mass-->fuel)
3. Carbon nano-tubes as pro/con (great benefit, like asbestos)
4. Enhanced user devices intregrate into every day tasks (driving, cooking) that driving un-enhanced is like cracking the model-T
5. Pay-by-the-byte from ISPs shapes usage to higher quality entertainment/use
6. Green houses: all roofs have flexible photo-voltaic cells and heat capture; standard for insulation increases; surcharge for poor energy efficiency products
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Personally I'm all for it. I want to someday be able to go to my local pharmacy and pick up some kind of grow kit (akin to kits offered for growing mushrooms from spores) where I could stick myself and then use my blood products as a starter to be able to grow my own stem cells and repair or grow my own replacement organ tissue.
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- Reliable early detection of cancer.
- Inexpensive genetic screening for hereditary diseases.
- Globally available "free" Internet access (broadband speed by today's standards) - think national road system.
- Solar power provides 50% of total US energy needs (including large and small scale water pumping systems for storage and night-time generation/recovery).
Things definitely NOT on my list:
- Mass-market space travel - WAY too energy intensive.
- Life expectancy radically different than today's (less than 10% improvement)
And one Wild Card:
- Detection of Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life (though not 2-way communication due to extreme latency).
Source(s):
(my gut)
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But importantly I would like to see the commercial development of... The Jet Pack.
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My business (IT, mainly planning and strategy) is involved in future-casting very heavily, so here are the game-changers, at least for the categories I am interested in. Some of them do appear to fall under the category of wishful thinking (I certainly wish them to be true), but in the long term I think they will have to become manifest realities.
1. Genetic engineering will become much faster in sequencing, the entire genome will not only be mapped but thoroughly understood, and the process will move to a personalized level, allowing for a wide variety of customized treatments (and potentially "elective" manipulations, if we also want to discuss the negatives) for individuals. This has the possibility of all but eliminating slow-acting viral diseases (HIV, etc), all but the most aggressive cancers, as well as genetic predispositions to diabetes and similar. The turning point will be the commoditization of the equipment and processes involved in sequencing, to the point that they become profitable to operate exclusively as a medical franchise, or even, to lower the entry bar further, as a loss leader to encourage shopping or other consumer behavior (think "Minute Clinic: Now offering gene therapy with every $40 purchase"). That is an economic and industrial change as much as a medical one.
2. Network (Internet if you will, but the distinction already is eroding) access will be ubiquitous, probably become a public utility to some degree (it is already in some places around the globe), and fundamental to the functioning of everyday life. I will not speculate heavily on interface, though I strongly suspect we will move toward and "invasive" convergence, if not a neural tap than at least fingertip attached controls or ear/jawbone audio interaction. Note the popularity of $200+ GPS devices, despite the ready availability at any fuel station of $2 maps that never run out of batteries. Note also the increasing reliance on external data archives instead of human memory (quick, what are the cell and home phone numbers of your three best friends, without looking at your phone/pda/plaaner/pc?). Those trends will continue, largely unchecked, but ubiquitous network access will make all data available at all times. This will have profound impacts on education, social interaction and mores, and other foundation piers of society.
3. To expand on 2, but go beyond the confines of data access, I believe current social values will erode and be replaced by new etiquette, values, conceptions and issues. The anthropologist in me is trying hard not to make value judgments about this item, but I believe that the new system will be both more enduring than previous value systems, and more flexible and accommodating of change and new information. Humans are small-group cooperative beings by nature, but as reasoning creatures capable of abstraction, the instinctual needs we continually strive to fulfill are possible to address through "non-traditional" means. Friendships, even heartfelt romance, exists between people who have never been in the same room together. Unbelievably bad, arrogant, selfish and immature behavior exists in the same context. The flexibility will come in the amazingly rapid interchange of data, including opinions and evidence, when new information arises for consideration. The enduring nature arrives the same way, paradigm "shifts" will now just be ripples, absorbed and assimilated into the gestalt.
Source(s):
Years of personal experience, extensive reading of hard and soft science fiction, science non-fiction in book and periodical form, similar discussions with friends over the years, what most people would use to support an opinion they believe is informed.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_winter
Disclaimer: this doesn't assume that the cause of the current climate change is man-made, just that there will be a urgent desire to reverse it.
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-- Brain-computer interfaces (both invasive and non-invasive) will become powerful and mainstream.
-- Gene therapy and germ-line therapy will make people much smarter and allow them to live much longer healthy lives. Most of the underlying causes of aging will probably be addressed (although not necessarily eliminated in my lifetime).
These types of developments will change what it means to be human.
Source(s):
My favorite crystal ball.
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There will be stations where people will be transported at near the speed of light velocities.
On a smaller note, I expect the "virtual world" (online, computer, etc) to be more interactive and realistic (expect 3D stuff).
Let's hope it's not bad change, such as government censoring the internet.
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Disease will be a thing of the past, you can become superman if you want.
Yes nanotechnology is the one thing I hope we will see on a large scale, and the most game changing technology of them all. I suspect if we achieve it then we will be able to build a utopia. After all when you never have to work for anything and can have your every whim catered for then you really have made it.
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I hope/believe that improved battery technology will be true game changers. Smaller/lighter batteries will allow longer distances on electric cars. If they shrink enough you could even get small/light duty trucks that are electric. But you also get things like bio-suits that can help people who cannot walk, move. Pacemakers and ICD will not need replaced or charged for decades. You make a lot of artificial organs possible. You get cell phones and laptops that only need to be charged once a month.
I've heard a couple of research organizations are working on ultra high capacity capacitors. One already claims to have a pack half the size/weight of what is in a Tesla with the same stored charge.
Another energy technology I expect to see in the future is machines which run directly from energy drawn from he body. So implantable devices which either convert body heat or actually chemically use energy directly from the body to function.
Finally nanomachines which will do everything from build/rebuild buildings to rebuilding organs in bodies will need to have energy sources.
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There is really no arguing with it. The population of this planet will continue to grow at an exponential rate till one of two things happen. We will all die off due to overcrowding or we continue to grow exponentially by moving on to other planets.
To accommodate our continued existence the human race must do two thing. First we have to live long enough to figure out how to get to other other planets and colonize them then we have to actually do it. The space elevator helps with both of these things.
For those unfamiliar with the concept, you essentially put something in orbit and tether it to earth with a really really long and really really strong cable. Last I heard, we are at about 97% of the strength we need with carbon nano-tubes to do it. From there it will just be a matter of mass producing it.
After you tether it, you then construct an elevator to traverse the cable. This makes it far more economical to get things into space. Another benefit is solar power is far more effective in space. So it will be a big part of the answer to our population problem and our power problem all in one go.
It's my understanding that Japan recently had a conference on the idea of a space elevator an plans to begin construction by 2017.
This will be the biggest game changer the earth has ever seen if it gets completed. Low energy movement of equipment into space will dwarf all other inventions and breakthroughs seen in our lifetime.
We are approaching the limits of what is possible on the earth. At this point it's all optimizing what already exists. Once we break free of the constraints of earth we will have a whole new set of discoveries awaiting.
Other options exist for getting things into orbit, but they tend to either be excessively prone to failure like the launch loop or require things to accelerate really really fast like the space gun. this along with the fact that Japan, a tech inclined country, is actually working on the elevator gives me far greater hope for its completion than other similar technologies.
Source(s):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&am...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_loop
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_gun
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/science/article4799369.ece
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Politically, we get closer and closer to 1984. Privacy rights continue to be eroded. The politics of fear continues to work (I hope I'm wrong about that).
Source(s):
1) Day dreams.
2) Ray Kurzweil's "The Singularity Is Near": http://singularity.com
3) ???
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Just my thoughts.
Take care.
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Answered Question
M$25
December 31, 2008 11:57 PM
What Will Change Everything? What game-changing scientific ideas & developments do you expect to live to see?
Edge.org has asked their annual question for 2009 and there are some amazing answers here: http://www.edge.org/q2009/q09_index.html
I'd like to put the question out to the Mahalo Community as well.
I'd like to put the question out to the Mahalo Community as well.
Interesting Question?
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| January 01, 2009 05:37 AM |
1. 3D printers in most people's homes - When you break a dish or glass, the 3D printer can make a new one. It will find all kinds of uses. Today already you can get a primitive one for $2000 and for $5000, you can get one that "prints" excellent shapes in resins/plastics. Soon cheap metal printing ones will become available and then maybe glass too. It will be great fun for kids too.
2. Search engines that search by visual similarity to uploaded pictures - If there is information attached to the returned image matches, then the uploaded pictures can be identified. So say with a cell phone you can take a picture of a landmark and get it identified as to what famous thing it is, say which Mountain you are staring out at from your train window.
3. Tweel is Michelin's tire and wheel hybrid - It never goes flat and can run even if heavily damaged. It has no air and has a spoke design like a bicycle tire except the spokes are flexible. It is too noisy and vibration prone above 50 mph, but has immediate uses in the construction trade and military.
4. Natural gas cars and home based fill up solutions - Honda is already selling natural gas powered Civics in large areas of the US for only $25,000. A home based fill up station that taps into your home gas line is already available for $4,000. If you buy a new Civic and home "Phillup" station made by FuelMaker, you can also get something like $5,000 in tax credit from the IRS alone.
5. Biologist will realize their current assumptions about genetics are deeply flawed. This is happening already. Two organisms like twins can be identical genetically but very different physically because the RNA and proteins of the original first cells that made up the two individuals were different, so genes get expressed differently. Also just as human family trees are actually webs, due to the requirement of a mother and father for all children, it will be discovered that the production of new species often requires a mother and father hybridization event. So the family tree of life will turn out to be a web too, not a fanned out tree produced by the accumulation of favorable or at least non-injurous mutations. This is already known to be true of the family tree of bacteria, where distantly related species have been know to have exchanged genetic material either directly or by agents of viruses.
6. Batteries that last much longer and charge much faster. Already early in 2009 Boston Power and HP are offering laptop upgrades for a new type of Lithium battery whose charge last 3 times longer, charges in half the time, and is warrantied for three years, longer than any current Lithium chargeable battery on the market.
7. Helmets for the blind that with electromagnetism will manipulate those areas of the brain naturally hard wired from birth for use in vision, in order to display virtual images captured on camera in cased in the helmet. In other word, non-invasive artificial eyes for the blind. Already Dr. Peter Meijer has developed a system that lets you see with vision. A sort of radar bounces sound waves off objects. After awhile, the blind or blinded person begins to naturally see fairly good representations of the shapes in front of them "in their mind's eye" so much so, they can forget they have the system attached, and take for granted they are now "seeing".
8. Medical advances such as knowing all the genetic diseases one has, real life prolonging drugs like Resveritol and SRT-1720, and real pinpointed remedies for genetic and bad lifestyle diseases such as schizophrenia and obesity.
9. LED lamps will come down in price so they replace the messy and toxic compact fluorescent and the annoyingly short lived conventional light bulbs.
Source(s):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_emerging_technologies
http://www.desktopfactory.com/our_product/ - $5000 desktop 3D printer that makes "prototypes" from composite plastic powder.
http://www.reprap.org/bin/view/Main/ItemsMade - supposed to be an open source 3D printer machine you can make for around $2000.
http://web.archive.org/web/20060528021519/www.shouldexist.org/story/2004/1/... - my description of an image identification search engine.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tweel - Michelin's tire and wheel hybrid
http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-gx/ - natural gas powered Honda Civic being possibly being sold in many areas of the US, no longer just in California and New York for $25,000
http://myphill.com/index.htm - natural gas fill up appliance available for $4,000.
http://www.greencardc.com/home/default.asp - DC area green car solution with Honda Civics and Phillups gas appliances.
http://genealogyoflife.com/ - my site that uses gedcom based genealogy files of half of the known named species to display the species tree of life like a human tree of life. The software allows for suggestions for historical hybridization-speciation events by any user.
http://www.boston-power.com/boston-power-announces-hp-as-first-customer-to-... - new greatly improved lithium batteries.
http://www.artificialvision.com/ - Dr. Peter B.L. Meijer's sonar eyes website.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3171226.stm - BBC's article on the subject.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SRT1720 - SRT1720 is a newly discovered drug that acts in the same way as Resveritol but is 1000 times more potent.
| Asker's Rating: |
• very solid answer...
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Other Answers (23)
January 01, 2009 12:05 AM
I really think that within the next 20 years, the U.S. will realize how very bad the genetically-modified crops are. Currently they are illegal in most of Europe, and Monsanto sues individual subsistence farmers trying to save seed, but their GMO seed is infertile, causing the farmers to be unable to save seed for the next season. In addition, I think that the medical community will start seeing more and more links to odd medical conditions that are linked to GMO crops.
And I think GMO crops will wipe out many food crops, making the price of food skyrocket. Over half of all grain crops are already GMO: guess what food commodity went highest last summer? And was behind the price hikes of grain-fed animal products?
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January 01, 2009 12:40 AM
I disagree. I suspect that not only will GMO's become more prevalent, they will become essential as our plant approaches 25 billion in population by the end of this century. That doesn't mean that I'm happy about it. I'm not.
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January 01, 2009 06:55 PM
Monsanto sure did engage in some shady dealing, but that doesn't mean all genetic engineering is bad. Thanks for the gloom-and-doom speculation, but it's really not as bad as all that. I think you might be a little confused about what genetic engineering is. They're not adding scary chemicals to plants. Genetic engineering, in the broadest sense, is just selective breeding, as has been practiced for centuries, but using modern technology to pick exactly what traits you want. The potential for reducing hunger by breeding drought-resistant plants is just one benefit of genetic engineering which we should all embrace, no matter how icky the process it may sound.
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January 01, 2009 09:08 PM
I didn't mention "scary chemicals". I know what genetic engineering is, and it is far more than just selective breeding, unless you happen to know a natural way to cross plants and animals, or plants of different species.
The thing is, we really don't know how bad it could be; yet the bulk of all food crops now grown in the U.S. are GMO. We have no idea of how turning the majority of acerage over to these crops is going to affect the environment. There are suspicions that some new diseases are linked to GMOs. By the time long-term studies are done, if the connection is there, millions of lives will have been ruined.
It is a huge risk that has been taken in the name of profit.
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The thing is, we really don't know how bad it could be; yet the bulk of all food crops now grown in the U.S. are GMO. We have no idea of how turning the majority of acerage over to these crops is going to affect the environment. There are suspicions that some new diseases are linked to GMOs. By the time long-term studies are done, if the connection is there, millions of lives will have been ruined.
It is a huge risk that has been taken in the name of profit.
January 02, 2009 06:24 PM
Your appealing to the "natural fallacy" which assumes that because something is natural it is inherently better. In truth, all crops are genetically modified because since humans have engaged in farming, they've engaged in selective reproduction to increase yield.
The fact that modified crops are illegal in most of Europe (a fact I'd like to confirm) gives no scientific credence to gm crops being bad. Your assertion that GMO crops will wipe out food crops is contradictory to available production statistics. Further, your claim that GMO is linked to increased food prices is completely baseless as it ignored a variety of other economic conditions most notably the skyrocketing (at that time) cost of transportation.
Your response presents no rational reason to believe GMO seeds are bad.
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The fact that modified crops are illegal in most of Europe (a fact I'd like to confirm) gives no scientific credence to gm crops being bad. Your assertion that GMO crops will wipe out food crops is contradictory to available production statistics. Further, your claim that GMO is linked to increased food prices is completely baseless as it ignored a variety of other economic conditions most notably the skyrocketing (at that time) cost of transportation.
Your response presents no rational reason to believe GMO seeds are bad.
January 03, 2009 03:55 PM
I am not appealing to a "natural fallacy". You, however, are engaging in oversimplification to what I said. When you insert bits of another species' DNA, or even a member of another kingdom's DNA, into a species that is widely grown over millions of acres, and when that modification often has to do with making that crop resistant to various "pests", whether insects, animals, other plants, various bacteria/fungi/viruses. All of which exist within a biological web, and many of which other species feed on. It's all so complex we simply don't know the long-term implications of what could happen by interfering with it on the scale that we do.
The majority of acerage in this country is now planted with GMO grains, so of course the production statistics remain high. The problem comes when people in other parts of the world, who have traditionally saved seed, cannot save this seed because it is not fertile. That forces them to go back to Monsanto for seed, which in many cases they cannot afford to do. Note this article: "The official report of the Govt. of the State of Andhra Pradesh, India, on the performance of genetically modified Bt cotton in the season 2002, "shows that in North Telengana, net income from Bt varieties was five times less than the yield from local non-Bt varieties. In Southern Telengana, the income from Monsanto's Bt crop was nearly 7 times less than what was obtained from the indigenous non-Bt cotton varieties, demonstrating the resounding failure of the Monsanto variety." http://www.organicconsumers.org/ge/bt_cotton.cfm
There is a whole lot more evidence where that came from:
"LONDON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Genetically modified crops in North America
have been an economic disaster, which has caused some farm groups there
to call for a moratorium on GM wheat, the next proposed crop to be
altered, a report released on Tuesday said.
The study by the Soil Association, Britain's leading organic
organisation, estimated that gene-altered maize, soya and rapeseed may
have cost the U.S. economy $12 billion since 1999 in farm subsidies,
lower crop prices, loss of major export orders and product recalls...The report said farmers are not achieving the higher profits promised by
the biotech companies as markets for GM food collapse, citing widespread
GM contamination at all levels of the food and farming industry as the
source.
"Within a few years of the introduction of GM crops, almost the entire
$300 million annual US maize exports to the EU had disappeared, and the
US share of the soya market had decreased," the report said.
"The lost export trade as a result of GM crops is thought to have caused
a fall in farm prices and hence a need for increased government
subsidies, estimated at an extra $3-$5 billion annually," it added." from http://www.organicconsumers.org/patent/exposed091702.cfm
Report
The majority of acerage in this country is now planted with GMO grains, so of course the production statistics remain high. The problem comes when people in other parts of the world, who have traditionally saved seed, cannot save this seed because it is not fertile. That forces them to go back to Monsanto for seed, which in many cases they cannot afford to do. Note this article: "The official report of the Govt. of the State of Andhra Pradesh, India, on the performance of genetically modified Bt cotton in the season 2002, "shows that in North Telengana, net income from Bt varieties was five times less than the yield from local non-Bt varieties. In Southern Telengana, the income from Monsanto's Bt crop was nearly 7 times less than what was obtained from the indigenous non-Bt cotton varieties, demonstrating the resounding failure of the Monsanto variety." http://www.organicconsumers.org/ge/bt_cotton.cfm
There is a whole lot more evidence where that came from:
"LONDON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Genetically modified crops in North America
have been an economic disaster, which has caused some farm groups there
to call for a moratorium on GM wheat, the next proposed crop to be
altered, a report released on Tuesday said.
The study by the Soil Association, Britain's leading organic
organisation, estimated that gene-altered maize, soya and rapeseed may
have cost the U.S. economy $12 billion since 1999 in farm subsidies,
lower crop prices, loss of major export orders and product recalls...The report said farmers are not achieving the higher profits promised by
the biotech companies as markets for GM food collapse, citing widespread
GM contamination at all levels of the food and farming industry as the
source.
"Within a few years of the introduction of GM crops, almost the entire
$300 million annual US maize exports to the EU had disappeared, and the
US share of the soya market had decreased," the report said.
"The lost export trade as a result of GM crops is thought to have caused
a fall in farm prices and hence a need for increased government
subsidies, estimated at an extra $3-$5 billion annually," it added." from http://www.organicconsumers.org/patent/exposed091702.cfm
January 01, 2009 12:07 AM
Currently, much of space exploration and industry is based on the expectation of revenue-driving technologies rather than the existence of the same. Within my lifetime - a good 50 or 60 more years - I expect a breakthrough in material science due to crystal formation (or other phenomenon such as protein folding) in microgravity. This will result in new materials with properties unlike those of any material formed in the presence of gravity. The discovery of such materials will spur space technology development in order to reduce the cost of production. The human race will finally become a space-faring species in a truer sense than it is now.
Source(s):
Prescience.
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January 01, 2009 12:09 AM
1. Carbon sequestration 2. Bio-mass generation of bio-diesel (waste mass-->fuel)
3. Carbon nano-tubes as pro/con (great benefit, like asbestos)
4. Enhanced user devices intregrate into every day tasks (driving, cooking) that driving un-enhanced is like cracking the model-T
5. Pay-by-the-byte from ISPs shapes usage to higher quality entertainment/use
6. Green houses: all roofs have flexible photo-voltaic cells and heat capture; standard for insulation increases; surcharge for poor energy efficiency products
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January 01, 2009 12:44 AM
1. Probably
2. Probably
3. Probably
4. Probably
5. Pay-by-the-byte!!!!??? OUCH
6. Probably
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2. Probably
3. Probably
4. Probably
5. Pay-by-the-byte!!!!??? OUCH
6. Probably
January 01, 2009 12:21 AM
Cloning, and the ethical and moral clusterfudge that will surround it. Personally I'm all for it. I want to someday be able to go to my local pharmacy and pick up some kind of grow kit (akin to kits offered for growing mushrooms from spores) where I could stick myself and then use my blood products as a starter to be able to grow my own stem cells and repair or grow my own replacement organ tissue.
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January 01, 2009 12:28 AM
Since I'm almost 50, my time horizon is about 25 years - probably shorter than many users of this site. My (pragmatic) list of expected "game changers" in science: - Reliable early detection of cancer.
- Inexpensive genetic screening for hereditary diseases.
- Globally available "free" Internet access (broadband speed by today's standards) - think national road system.
- Solar power provides 50% of total US energy needs (including large and small scale water pumping systems for storage and night-time generation/recovery).
Things definitely NOT on my list:
- Mass-market space travel - WAY too energy intensive.
- Life expectancy radically different than today's (less than 10% improvement)
And one Wild Card:
- Detection of Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life (though not 2-way communication due to extreme latency).
Source(s):
(my gut)
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January 02, 2009 07:20 PM
Thinking about this more - I should also add that I think Electricity will become the primary means of powering ground transportation (cars/trains). This goes hand in hand with increased investment in solar/wind/hydro/nuclear power generation.
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January 01, 2009 12:31 AM
I believe that a clear genetic link to homosexuality will be discovered. I suspect that women will be found to be the carriers of the gene much like hemophilia. The good news is that this will result in much more acceptance of homosexuals and lesbians. The bad news is that a test will be created that will allow couples to discover whether or not the gene is dominant in their fetus and this will lead to abortions based on the presence of the gene.
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January 01, 2009 12:33 AM
We will see the most insane developments of green energy in the next 30 years, not by choice, but because we will be running out of oil. We will see the greatest advances when companies find out how to monetize green energy. But we will see it very soon. Solar power will be harnessed to an extreme never before considered within 30 years. We will see very few places on US soil that we won't be able to look to one side or the other and find a solar panel.
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January 01, 2009 12:49 AM
I agree with your view on solar power panels. Eventually, we might see regulations requiring roofing materials to have solar cells embedded in them.
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January 01, 2009 12:43 AM
I would like in my lifetime significant progress towards becoming independent of fossil fuels. I would like to see progress towards curing cancer and other horrible diseases. But importantly I would like to see the commercial development of... The Jet Pack.
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January 01, 2009 12:50 AM
I am 27 years old. Based on my details entered into this life expectancy calculator, I should expect to see 89 (the year 2071). http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/calcs/n_expect/main.asp My business (IT, mainly planning and strategy) is involved in future-casting very heavily, so here are the game-changers, at least for the categories I am interested in. Some of them do appear to fall under the category of wishful thinking (I certainly wish them to be true), but in the long term I think they will have to become manifest realities.
1. Genetic engineering will become much faster in sequencing, the entire genome will not only be mapped but thoroughly understood, and the process will move to a personalized level, allowing for a wide variety of customized treatments (and potentially "elective" manipulations, if we also want to discuss the negatives) for individuals. This has the possibility of all but eliminating slow-acting viral diseases (HIV, etc), all but the most aggressive cancers, as well as genetic predispositions to diabetes and similar. The turning point will be the commoditization of the equipment and processes involved in sequencing, to the point that they become profitable to operate exclusively as a medical franchise, or even, to lower the entry bar further, as a loss leader to encourage shopping or other consumer behavior (think "Minute Clinic: Now offering gene therapy with every $40 purchase"). That is an economic and industrial change as much as a medical one.
2. Network (Internet if you will, but the distinction already is eroding) access will be ubiquitous, probably become a public utility to some degree (it is already in some places around the globe), and fundamental to the functioning of everyday life. I will not speculate heavily on interface, though I strongly suspect we will move toward and "invasive" convergence, if not a neural tap than at least fingertip attached controls or ear/jawbone audio interaction. Note the popularity of $200+ GPS devices, despite the ready availability at any fuel station of $2 maps that never run out of batteries. Note also the increasing reliance on external data archives instead of human memory (quick, what are the cell and home phone numbers of your three best friends, without looking at your phone/pda/plaaner/pc?). Those trends will continue, largely unchecked, but ubiquitous network access will make all data available at all times. This will have profound impacts on education, social interaction and mores, and other foundation piers of society.
3. To expand on 2, but go beyond the confines of data access, I believe current social values will erode and be replaced by new etiquette, values, conceptions and issues. The anthropologist in me is trying hard not to make value judgments about this item, but I believe that the new system will be both more enduring than previous value systems, and more flexible and accommodating of change and new information. Humans are small-group cooperative beings by nature, but as reasoning creatures capable of abstraction, the instinctual needs we continually strive to fulfill are possible to address through "non-traditional" means. Friendships, even heartfelt romance, exists between people who have never been in the same room together. Unbelievably bad, arrogant, selfish and immature behavior exists in the same context. The flexibility will come in the amazingly rapid interchange of data, including opinions and evidence, when new information arises for consideration. The enduring nature arrives the same way, paradigm "shifts" will now just be ripples, absorbed and assimilated into the gestalt.
Source(s):
Years of personal experience, extensive reading of hard and soft science fiction, science non-fiction in book and periodical form, similar discussions with friends over the years, what most people would use to support an opinion they believe is informed.
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January 01, 2009 01:02 AM
A consortium of nations will seriously consider a radical plan to place enough particles in the upper atmosphere to reverse the effects of climate change. The desired outcome would be similar to that of a mild "volcanic winter": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_winter
Disclaimer: this doesn't assume that the cause of the current climate change is man-made, just that there will be a urgent desire to reverse it.
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January 01, 2009 01:27 AM
-- I think that artificial general intelligence will become a reality within the next three decades (probably much sooner). -- Brain-computer interfaces (both invasive and non-invasive) will become powerful and mainstream.
-- Gene therapy and germ-line therapy will make people much smarter and allow them to live much longer healthy lives. Most of the underlying causes of aging will probably be addressed (although not necessarily eliminated in my lifetime).
These types of developments will change what it means to be human.
Source(s):
My favorite crystal ball.
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January 01, 2009 02:02 AM
Teleporting will be big. And yes, it will come. There will be stations where people will be transported at near the speed of light velocities.
On a smaller note, I expect the "virtual world" (online, computer, etc) to be more interactive and realistic (expect 3D stuff).
Let's hope it's not bad change, such as government censoring the internet.
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January 01, 2009 11:16 PM
Unfortunately teleportation is completely impossible. No matter how hopeful a popular science article might be, even citing quantum teleportation experiments, all attempts have to end at one very fundamental physical law: that quantum states cannot be duplicated (the no-Xerox theorem).
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January 01, 2009 02:39 AM
Nanotechnology. To put it into perspective imagine have a computer as powerful as any supercomputer now inside every pixel of your computer monitor. Or thinking a about eating a cheeseburger and have one materialise in front of you. Want the matrix? Done. Disease will be a thing of the past, you can become superman if you want.
Yes nanotechnology is the one thing I hope we will see on a large scale, and the most game changing technology of them all. I suspect if we achieve it then we will be able to build a utopia. After all when you never have to work for anything and can have your every whim catered for then you really have made it.
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January 01, 2009 04:30 AM
I think most future improvements will revolve around energy sources. For instance solar, wind, and hydro replacing green house gas and nuclear. I hope/believe that improved battery technology will be true game changers. Smaller/lighter batteries will allow longer distances on electric cars. If they shrink enough you could even get small/light duty trucks that are electric. But you also get things like bio-suits that can help people who cannot walk, move. Pacemakers and ICD will not need replaced or charged for decades. You make a lot of artificial organs possible. You get cell phones and laptops that only need to be charged once a month.
I've heard a couple of research organizations are working on ultra high capacity capacitors. One already claims to have a pack half the size/weight of what is in a Tesla with the same stored charge.
Another energy technology I expect to see in the future is machines which run directly from energy drawn from he body. So implantable devices which either convert body heat or actually chemically use energy directly from the body to function.
Finally nanomachines which will do everything from build/rebuild buildings to rebuilding organs in bodies will need to have energy sources.
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January 01, 2009 06:09 AM
Two words, space elevator. There is really no arguing with it. The population of this planet will continue to grow at an exponential rate till one of two things happen. We will all die off due to overcrowding or we continue to grow exponentially by moving on to other planets.
To accommodate our continued existence the human race must do two thing. First we have to live long enough to figure out how to get to other other planets and colonize them then we have to actually do it. The space elevator helps with both of these things.
For those unfamiliar with the concept, you essentially put something in orbit and tether it to earth with a really really long and really really strong cable. Last I heard, we are at about 97% of the strength we need with carbon nano-tubes to do it. From there it will just be a matter of mass producing it.
After you tether it, you then construct an elevator to traverse the cable. This makes it far more economical to get things into space. Another benefit is solar power is far more effective in space. So it will be a big part of the answer to our population problem and our power problem all in one go.
It's my understanding that Japan recently had a conference on the idea of a space elevator an plans to begin construction by 2017.
This will be the biggest game changer the earth has ever seen if it gets completed. Low energy movement of equipment into space will dwarf all other inventions and breakthroughs seen in our lifetime.
We are approaching the limits of what is possible on the earth. At this point it's all optimizing what already exists. Once we break free of the constraints of earth we will have a whole new set of discoveries awaiting.
Other options exist for getting things into orbit, but they tend to either be excessively prone to failure like the launch loop or require things to accelerate really really fast like the space gun. this along with the fact that Japan, a tech inclined country, is actually working on the elevator gives me far greater hope for its completion than other similar technologies.
Source(s):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&am...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_loop
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_gun
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/science/article4799369.ece
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January 01, 2009 12:19 PM
Molecular manufacturing, molecular computing, designer babies, organ cloning and manufacturing, ability to clone humans, huge advancements in robotics, more. Human-like robots. Matrix-like virtual reality. Politically, we get closer and closer to 1984. Privacy rights continue to be eroded. The politics of fear continues to work (I hope I'm wrong about that).
Source(s):
1) Day dreams.
2) Ray Kurzweil's "The Singularity Is Near": http://singularity.com
3) ???
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January 02, 2009 09:40 PM
My own personal belief in the next "big jump" to make a huge impact on the species of man specifically (and planet generically) is going to be cloned tissues. DARPA has recently accidentally figured out that they can create universal red blood cells using umbilical stem cells (hurray for umbilical stem cells, religious zealots can't say crap about it because it doesn't involve a lost life). They were trying to create other tissues and kept "messing up" which resulted in a red blood cell... What does this mean? Pure, clean blood in a nearly undepletable source for transfusions. No more blood banking, blood drives, shortage of XX type blood. This will go very, VERY far towards our ability to turn these umbilical stem cells into other cells and in turn grow organs to take care of the organ donor issues. Just my thoughts.
Take care.
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Also there is a correction to make, although I thought I have heard of blind people forming images in their minds using sonar type aids, I don't have the reference and I suppose there is such thing as an "imagined memory" that I didn't understand what I heard about this There is a boy who uses his own mouth generated clicks in a sonar way: http://www.metacafe.com/watch/318066/blind_boy_that_sees_using_sounds_like_dolphins/.
Here is a commercial sort making fun of a slow connection to a fish identifying service: http://3drender.com/qt/swbpiranha.qt. The husband is hooked up to "fish net" that is too slow to prevent he and his wife from identifying a piranha before it eats their docile tropical fish. There is a better Verizon or Comcast commercial along the same lines, that makes use of an online fish identifier concept much better, but I haven't been able to locate it or get someone to locate it for me with a Mahalo, see: http://www.mahalo.com/answers/technology-and-internet/can-someone-find-me-a-link-to-a-commercial-that-shows-2-scientist-taking-too-long-to-identify-a-piranha-online.
On the other hand, since 1959 it has been known that unrelated bacteria can engage in "horizontal gene transfer". The role of this latter mode of gene transfer in speciation is understood to be more and more important with each passing year.
As I mentioned originally, at least with more primitive life forms, the genealogy or phylogenetic trees is no long seen as a fan shape, but instead as a "mosaic" (not a web by the way, so mosaic maybe the well thought out best word to emphasize the unplanned nature, which is unlike a spider's web). So this is well know.
See the Wikipedia article here that better research than I did earlier led me to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizontal_gene_transfer.
Personally I see the future role of horizontal gene transfer to extend to hybridization. Also I think it will be seen in the speciation history of all life including man.
By the way here is a serious attempt to explain Junk DNA as the inheritance of acquired characteristics or a form of Lamarckianism. The Junk DNA in this view, is a record of adaptive parental behavior. This would be certainly revolutionize genetics if true: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0306987704004992.