Reading Israel attack plan for Iran in WSJ today. Thoughts? http://post.ly/6MQP
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M$7 Answers
The clock is ticking and the window of opportunity is closing to prevent Iran obtain enough nuclear material to create its first nuclear bomb. Make no mistake about it Jason, the attack is a go. The problem is not how but when?
Israel has been preparing this attack during the last decade. You see the three different routes proposed, there? They choose the northern route Red line). The run will fly over northern Syria and will enter Turkey airspace (with their benevolent permit, now that they are commercial allies) then they will fly north of Iraq without entering their airspace (so they wont involve USA in the melee) and next they will descent diagonally all over Iran nuclear facilities scattered throughout their territory... and return back by the same way.
This route has a reason. It is the longest one but will ensure them a safest passage. Syria being one of their fiercest enemies has been tested by Israel during the last 2 years. During September 2007, Israel successfully destroyed the second nuclear reactor in history, one built secretly by Syria hidden deep into their western desert. Their Pechora Russian anti-aircraft missile systems were completely silenced. Israel electronically bugged the whole Syrian radar and defense network enabling the safe passage of F-15 strike bombing aircraft which hit the plant.
Reality check for Iran and its nuclear program...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6xApA38InA
During June 2008, Israel rehearsed for an Iran strike over 900 miles all the way to Greece with at least 100 aircraft. Exactly the same straight line distance to reach its targets on Iran. This is a clear indication that Israel has taken in consideration all possible routes for the attack.
During May 2009, Israel also staged a rehearsal flying to the British colony of Gibraltar near southern Spain. It carried out an exercise all across the Mediterranean 3.800 kilometers away from Israel and proved that Israel Defense Forces plans to strike in Iran if Tehran continues with its refusal to cooperate with the international community in regards to its nuclear plan.
So, the major problem won´t be the distance but the multitude of targets that they will have to strike. Previous attacks, like the one to Osirak, in Irak during 1981 and the second one in Syria, during 2007, were single targets. With Iran, Israel faces a logistical problem which will not only require the participation of its entire air force, but a continuous strike operation with numerous sorties during a lengthy campaign.
The hardest nut to crack will be the impressive nuclear facility at Natanz. Underground bunkers where Iran has amassed up to 1000 centrifuges for the separation of highly enriched, weapons-grade uranium.
Aerial view of Natanz enrichment facility. Clearly seeing the underground bunkers on the open, the centrifuges buildings, the access tunnel a two complete underground bunkers just on the final stages of its construction, with some dirt layer being prepare for roof cover.
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M$
What I felt was lacking in the article was a true appreciation or understanding of the Israeli military ethos.
Israeli military planning has always revolved around speed, daring, boldness and surprise. There size and geographic location so demands it. It has also always revolved around the single opportunity theory. Preparedness and decisiveness has always been at the core of Israeli military thought.
Modification of weaponry has also been a trademark of the Israeli military. From something as simple as adding a rear view mirror to the old U.S. made F-4 Phantom jets, to the current F-15I being fitted with the Israeli made Elisra SPS-2110 Integrated Electronic Warfare System, making the attack fighter comparable, if not superior, in terms of targeting and warning systems to its American core variant the F-15E, improvement of weapons through modification has always been central to them.
On paper, the Israelis should never of had emerged victorious in the Six Days War, nor should they have done so in the Yom Kipur War; yet, they did.
Similarly today, it does not seem possible that they could realize an effective and successful air strike against the important Iranian nuclear facilities.
So then, let us ask ourselves how is it that they have done the impossible so many times before?
The answer is simple, they were not doing the impossible. They were simply disproving conventional thinking by the method of their execution. Israel has always manged to incorporate the unconventional, be it covertly, or in tactics, in weaponry modification or in timing, to wedge open the limitations of conventional warfare just enough to give them the advantage for that short precious time frame in which they are engaged.
Any analysis basing itself on what conventional military theorists would do in planning and undertaking such an attack totally overlooks that essential truth.
If and when an Israeli air strike is launched, there is only one thing which can be certain, it will not follow the framework of what is currently perceived to be conventional. Israel is well aware that surprise in war does not come from timing alone. There will be a surprise element, what exactly would that be? It could lie within the technical realm, some modification to their targeting systems. It could come from their intelligence network, a sinister and delicious coup of information obtained from a well placed mole in Iran years in advance. It could even come from boldness of execution, the suggestion of using a nuclear tipped bunker buster mentioned in the article actually sounded reasonable to me in this regard. Scary, but reasonable in the context of military prudence and necessity from the Israeli point of view.
Basically we can be sure of two things; first, the Israelis in their planning for this have some element of surprise incorporated into their plans that will amaze armchair generals everywhere after the fact. Second, since an immediate tactical threat is lacking here, they will not launch until it suits their conditions for optimum chances of success.
A quote from the great Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz is fitting here, "Once the extreme is no longer feared or aimed at, it becomes a matter of judgment what degree of effort should be made; and this can only be based on . . . the laws of probability."
If ever there has been a military force that does not fear the extreme and takes into account the laws of probability in military planning and judgment more than anyone else, it is the Israeli Armed Forces.
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M$You can leave an optional "tip" with Mahalo's virtual currency, Mahalo Dollars. If you are asking a difficult question that might require some research, or if you'd like a wide variety of feedback, a higher tip often leads to more answers to your question.
M$
1. Iran and Saudi relations are strained
2. Wahhabi society is skeptical about Iran Shi’it activities in the Gulf region
3. The Wahhabi deem Shi'it religious beliefs as incorrect
4. During the Iran/Iraq war, Saudi pledge $25 billion to Iraq.
5. Support of Israeli aircraft is contrary to historical Saudi position on use of force to stop nuclear testing in Iran. Saudi recognizes Iran as a potential threat.
6. Iran deems Saudi as an agent of the US
See
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_%E2%80%93_Saudi_Arabia_relations
Given the antisemitism of Iran and the fact they are pursuing Nukes, you have to ask what is the real agenda here? you have Israel a country the size of New Jersey or many California counties and the Muslim world does not want them to exist, people in the west don't get Islamic culture , but it is all about them and they do not respect us. how do you you this you say? because when we go to their countries we are supposed to respect their customs and when they come to ours they do not have to respect our customs. the hajib being one. as long as they refuse to respect you are going to have problems I hope Israel finally puts them down.
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M$Judaism and Islam Both started with the same family under Father Abraham/Ibrahim. The cultures split apart with Isaac and Ishmael..
This is where the Bible and Qu'ran Both Fill in the other half that the other Holy Scripture misses.. Why do the Brothers and Sisters of G-d/Allah have to keep on fighting over politics, and land? And why would anyone want to set off a nuke knowing that every time one single nuke is set off. It increases Cancer risk world wide for all living things! .. Why would you want to be part of such a bad thing?
Yes, I understand That many view Israelis like a bunch of Illegal Sqwatters stealing their Holy lands.. But you know what.. G-d/Allah created the entire earth. So why ruin the entire earth for one of the oldest family feuds in history? ...
Israelis and Iranians and Every needs to grow up and start embracing and respecting eachothers differences and boundries.. The way I feel about the Holy Lands.. Why not declared that International Territory it is to scared for any one single country to own and manage... But should be respected and cared for by everyone if the area is truely sacred.. Then stop bombing the area just to run a bunch of people out... embrace these people adopt them, Learn to disagree with the differences.. But foster RESPECT for eachother after all both Sacred Books to each tradition teaches Love, and tolerance. Embrace this and show it! .. For the Sake of your Sacred lands before they are so polluted that no one can set foot their to pray or worship.
I say Shalom Aleichum, Salam Alaykum. But neither are my first language so I am probably spelling them wrong. To state it in English. Peace be upon you both my Israel Spiritual Friends and Iranian spirit friends. Lets stop bombing eachother and both come together to make it a better world. Same with the US too.. PEACE talks people.. Instead of using Nukes for bombs use them for fuel cells and unlimited energy put an end to the worlds energy crisis and dependance..
- DNatureofDTrain
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M$
A nuclear detonate annihilates governments. Iran could use an nuclear weapon and in one stroke completely obliterate Israels existence, a holocaust with no survivors.
Israel leaders believe action must be taken to remove the nuclear threat. The nuclear threat appears real and intention seem credible.
I know it is a little preachy.. But All the other facts about this others had covered except the preachy bit :) .. But I do love both Iran and Israel but both had committed alot of warcrimes, even my own country the USA has gone over board on thing... I just wish our leaders would really work to cept the stage for a better world for everyone... :) and I am an ordained minister.. so I apologise for getting a little to preachy every now and then. Take care! :) - Rev. Dana C. L. "DNatureofDTrain"
A little preachy and rosy, for me, but I appreciate the sentiment.
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M$2. Israel will not tolerate a nuclear Iran.
3. Israeli jets knocked out a nuclear reactor in Syria
4. Israel's military operation in Iran will be complex with many strategic points, deep under the ground.
5. Iran is buying anti-aircraft missiles from Russia and by the end of the year should have a defense in place.
6. Israel is under pressure to act before Russian anti-aircraft defenses are in place. The element of surprise and best optimal conditions for success are pressing Israeli planners.
Time is the window of opportunity that pushes Israel to act.
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M$
Today Israel maintains a naval and a border blockade on Gaza, preventing the import of raw materials used to fabricate home made rockets that could be launched against Israeli targets.
Gaza did not represent a direct treat to Jerusalem, because that city is too far from the reach of the home made propelled rockets fabricated inside Gaza by the Hamas fighters. The only possible danger from Gaza home made short range missiles will be the attacks around the Gaza-Israeli border.
It is worth noting that the hand made Gaza missiles are not guided but instead free flight devices with little or no target accuracy, terror weapons more than anything else, but still able to inflict damage on Israeli infrastructure and casualties on civilian population.
Not likely, since the Israeli Air Force is a 24 hour combat ready unit, the sortie must start during the early evening hours, say 1:00 am in Israel, so they´ll be able to travel in advance and arrive on Iran just before the first light of the day and strike the nuclear compounds.
They will be able to achieve surprise for the lack of readiness on the first hours of the day from the anti-aircraft artillery defense regiments gathered around the sites. This will be the ideal hours since Iranian air forces will be sleeping.
In any case, the drop on nuclear facilities will most likely be preceded by preemptive strikes on command an control centers, radar network installations and key airfields where Iran houses the core muscle of its air forces such the F-14A fighter bomber squadrons, F-4 Phantom squadrons and F-5 interceptors, none of them superior in any respect to the units fielded by Israel.
I must tell that the American made aircraft models on service with the Iranian Air Force date back from the days of the Sha of Iran, before the Islamic revolution. They have more than 30 year in service, for all accounts outdated material.
Still, Iranians have managed to reverse engineering many aircraft models to kept with the embargos on western technology and specially with American made aircraft such the F-14A an the F-5.
They achieved great advances in replicating some technologies like the unique air to air Phoenix missile carried by the F-14 or the F-5 which they derived some indigenous version called Saegheh, no more than a refined version with two vertical tail rudders instead one.
Nothing substantial that will worry Israeli.
Iranian Saegheh no more than an evolved old F-5.
Is Israel in a state of war?
It seem controlling Gaza is important to prevent short range missiles from hitting Jerusalem. Controlling Gaza is essential for protection from the South.
The red route reasons were believable. The Israeli airforce penetrates through Syria, Iraq, and into Iran.
Will Air to Air combat between Israel and Iran be a factor?