I think Mickey Rourke should win. His performance was touching - I really felt for his character.
I think Brad Pitt will win. Though, it was more special effects than Brad Pitt actually acting IMO.
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Will win, Mickey Rourke - Should Win, Sean Penn.
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I'm saying it again even though it's already been said. I can't believe I've been beat again.

Brad Pitt will win. Because it's won all the other award shows. I personally didn't care for that movie.

Mickey Rourke should win. And for best supporting actress Marisa Tomei should win also.
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Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler will win

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler should win, however Frank Langella was a close sec. Every one this year was very good
Source(s):
My good taste in movies and film :-)

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I believe Mickey Rourke will win for "The Wrestler." Age and comebacks make for great Oscar stories.
I'd kind of like Sean Penn to win for "Milk". He's already won before for "Mystic River", so I think he'll be edged out.
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I think Mickey Rourke *will* win - its a cinderally story with personal touches and all.

I think Sean Penn *should* win - he played a character that he is not, so convincingly well!! Good research... I will be pleasantly surprised if Sean wins.

Additionally, not part of this question, if in a slim chance that Brad Pitt wins, I will be extremely disappointed.
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I think Mickey Rourke "will" and "should" win. He deserves it.
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I think Brad Pitt will win.

Heath Ledger should have won (whether he was dead or not). I think what happened with that was everyone though Heath was a shoo in so not as many people voted for him then wanted to.
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I think Mickey Rourke SHOULD win but I think that Brad Pitt will win. :(
Brad's performance was good and that had a lot to do with the Director of Curious Case Of BB(I believe he also directed Fight Club IIRC). The interesting thing about Mickey Rourke is that his character in the Wrestler was almost a metaphor of his real life boxing experience after he quit acting in the 90s.
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i think Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has doen a fab job ... he should win
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Sean Penn Should win, by far. Mickey Rourke is strongly overrated, because of his 'misfortune'.
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I think that Sean Penn is going to win. He's playing someone in a biopic. That's a virtual guarantee for an Oscar lately. The same goes for Best Actress, but that's not part of this question.

2002: Adrian Brody for playing Wladyslaw Szpilman
2003: No nominee playing a real person
2004: Jamie Foxx for playing Ray Charles
2005: Philip Seymour Hoffman for playing Truman Capote
2006: Forest Whitaker for playing Idi Amin
2007: no nominee playing a real person

Who should win it? Mickey Rourke. He may be able to pull it off because of his age and his recent resurgence since playing Marv in Sin City, but I think the Acadamy's obsession over biopics is going to keep him from that golden statuette.

EDIT: And technically, these are the Academy Awards for 2008, not 2009.
Source(s):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academy_Award_for_Best_Actor#2000s
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academy_Award_for_Best_Actress#2000s

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Nate Silver (the man behind FiveThirtyEight.com) predicts that Mickey Rourke will win with 71.1% certainty. Sean Penn is in second with a 19% certainty.

I imagine that the Oscars are less predictable than the Presidential election, but that's a pretty clear favorite.

As for who should win... I personally think Rouke's performance was one of the best I have ever seen. But I would have no problem with Penn winning. They others would be a disappointment in my book.
Source(s):
http://nymag.com/movies/features/54335/

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The Academy membership is still filled with a lot of "old Hollywood".
I am guessing Sean Penn will win, but maybe Mickey Rourke should win.

Actors don't take Brad Pitt serious as a dramatic actor, imo. I'd be surprised if Pitt won. A lot of people think Bencio del Toro was robbed by not even being nominated for Che (and instead the heavy makeup dependent Pitt role was nominated.)

The outside "long shot" is Frank Langella, for Frost/Nixon. Cochese forgot to mention if performances based on real life characters have a slight edge, then you would have to think Langella might also be a good bet.

This is the race of the year (for the Academy). They were all good performances. I would be the most disappointed if Pitt won. And I think it's crummy that Heath ledger was nominated as a Supporting Actor for Dark Knight. Heath was the reason to see the film. (BrokeBack Mountain was robbed..)
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I think Mickey Rourke SHOULD and WILL win. I enjoyed The Wrestler so much more than I thought I would, and that's largely because of his performance.

Sean Penn would be a very close second, awesome job.

If Brad Pitt wins I'll be bummed. He's a good actor, but not in this film.
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Will win - * Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Should win - * Sean Penn, Milk
Hollywood loves a comeback. It also doesn’t hurt that Mr. Rourke is astonishing in the film and is giving the performance of the year and a performance for the ages.
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Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler will win this one.

He's also been in Stormbreaker.
Source(s):
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000620/

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1) Sean Penn

2) Mickey Rourke
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Dev patel for Slumdog Millionaire.
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mickey rourke will win the oscars this time i guess
and for others
sean penn deserves tp be won lets see whats luck got for him
brad pitt i dont think so he will win, but im his fan so im rooting for him.
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What's really curious about "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" is that most Oscar pundits give the lead star of the film with the most nominations virtually no hope of winning best actor. Among the five contenders in that category, Brad Pitt is usually ranked fourth or fifth by prognosticators. Why?

Most likely it's punishment for his good looks. Look at other top male stars who haven't won Oscars despite working in Hollywood for years: Tom Cruise, Johnny Depp, Leonardo DiCaprio, Richard Gere. They're all heartthrobs — just like previous matinee stars who got snubbed in years past: James Dean, Steve McQueen, Tyrone Power and Robert Taylor.

Now consider the parade of young lovelies who dominated the actress awards in recent years. Best-actress champs over the last decade, for example, include Julia Roberts, Halle Berry, Nicole Kidman, Charlize Theron and Reese Witherspoon. Read more about that phenomenon in Gold Derby's separate blog piece about the Babe Factor.

http://goldderby.latimes.com/awards_goldderby/images/2008/02/21/studs.jpg

The male counterpart to that female factor is the Slap the Stud Syndrome. While a few handsome male stars have managed to win now and then in the past, most have been denied. There's a clear pattern of it.

Consider the case of Tom Cruise, who lost the 1989 best actor Oscar to Daniel Day-Lewis. Both men played wheelchair-bound real-life heroes in "Born on the Fourth of July" and "My Left Foot," respectively. Cruise had won the Golden Globe while Day-Lewis had taken most of the critics prizes. When the British born Day-Lewis prevailed over the all-American Cruise many Oscarologists attributed this to another instance of the Slap the Stud Syndrome.

The theory goes that many of the academy voters are geezer guys who love the younger fillies but resent the handsome bucks. Their message to these Hollywood heartthrobs: "You already have it all –- fame, fortune and females aplenty. So, sorry pal, no Oscar for you, just yet."

However, just like the pretty women who de-glamorize themselves (Charlize Theron, "Monster"; Nicole Kidman, "The Hours") to win an Oscar so too can the handsome hunks who pack on a few pounds, a la George Clooney in 2005's "Syriana." Last year, Javier Bardem was the hunk du jour whose unflattering Buster Brown bowl cut in "No Country for Old Men" won him the supporting actor Oscar.

http://goldderby.latimes.com/awards_goldderby/images/2008/02/22/studs3.jpg

While Tom Cruise lost his 1996 best actor bid for "Jerry Maguire" to respected stage star Geoffrey Rush ("Shine"), he lost the 1999 supporting actor race when nomm'd for "Magnolia" to one-time stud Michael Caine ("The Cider House Rules"). Caine did not win his first three best actor races and only won his first supporting Oscar ("Hannah and Her Sisters," 1986) when he was on other side of 50.

Al Pacino was 52 when nomination No. 7 for "Scent of a Woman" turned out to be the lucky one in 1992. However, by the time Oscar voters finally rewarded Paul Newman, he didn't care anymore. Even though he was widely favored to win best actor for the 1986 film, "The Color of Money," the 62-year-old actor skipped the ceremony. At that point he'd lost seven times and was tied with Richard Burton and Peter O'Toole as Oscar's biggest loser. Disgusted by the whole game, Newman told the Associated Press that his pursuit of the statuette had been "like chasing a beautiful woman for 80 years. Finally, she relents and you say, 'I am terribly sorry. I'm tired.' "

And while there are the usual exceptions to the rule — both Clark Gable ("It Happened One Night," 1934) and Marlon Brando ("On the Waterfront," 1954) won Oscars at the height of their careers — many more leading men have been slapped through the years, never winning Oscars for acting:

Warren Beatty (four lead nominations)
Charles Boyer (four lead nominations)
Montgomery Clift (three lead and one supporting nominations)
James Dean (two lead nominations)
Leonardo DiCaprio (two lead and one supporting nominations)
Kirk Douglas (three lead nominations)
Clint Eastwood (two lead nominations)
Albert Finney (four lead and one supporting nominations)
Peter Fonda (one lead nomination)
Harrison Ford (one lead nomination)
Cary Grant (two lead nominations)
Rock Hudson (one lead nomination)
Jude Law (two lead nominations)
Marcello Mastroianni (three lead nominations)
Steve McQueen (one lead nomination)
Robert Mitchum (one supporting nomination)
Nick Nolte (two lead nominations)
Robert Redford (one lead nomination)
Burt Reynolds (one supporting nomination)
Will Smith (two lead nominations)
John Travolta (two lead nominations).

Also check out:
http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=news/entertainment/oscars&id=6668357

http://www.denverpost.com/entertainment/ci_11694794

http://oscars.movies.yahoo.com/news/165-oscar-voters-wrestle-with-best-actor-choice-reuters

Incidentally, Pitt and Penn are coming together for “Tree of Life"!!!
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* Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler .
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