I think it is USA Chicago. It is relying on the power of a country. USA is still the strongest country in the world. And Obama is a very charming guy, so USA will be the next country, I think.
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I think Rio SHOULD get the games, but I think Chicago WILL. There are all sorts of details people use to analyze these decisions (Who has the biggest budgetary support, Who has the infrastructure, etc.) - here's the thing - this is not an objective ("who has the best proposal") decision - it's a political and emotional one.

In that regard, I think Rio and Chicago are the only contenders. Rio has a the draw of being the first South American country that would host the games. In the truest sense of the Olympic spirit, I think they would have to be the winners.

But I just simply wouldn't underestimate the politicking of Chicago. While you might debate whether he is a good mayor, Daley is an amazing politician. Add the superstar Obama/Oprah power and I think Chicago will get the job done.

All the polls seem to indicate the these two cities are neck and neck. If this is true, then it's actually going to be the Madrid/Tokyo supporters who will decide the race. Here's why: The IOC voting process is such that the voting continues until one city has the majority. A round of votes is taken - if no city has the majority, the city getting the lowest number of votes is dropped and another vote is taken. So, after the first couple rounds the Tokyo/Madrid supporters will have to pick either Chicago or Rio.

Again, this is where I think the political aptitude of the Chicago team will get them the victory.
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If I had to guess that Chicago lost out yesterday, I would. :)
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