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My opinions:
1. Yes he will run for Senate.
2. No, he will not change the face of the Republican party.
Crist has been looking more and more like a Senate candidate rather than a candidate for reelection to the governorship.
Everybody is looking at Crist for the 2012 or possibly 2016 presidential race. And right now, he is extremely popular in the state of Florida. The problem is, Florida's economy is starting to falter. The last thing you want when you're running for president is to look like a failed governor.
If Crist runs for Senate, I think he would win in a walk. The best candidate on the Democratic side is a somewhat little-known representative named Kendrick Meek. And despite his impressive fundraising, he is getting crushed in the polls statewide.
However, I don't think Crist will change the face of the party. To get elected, you need to be able to win over Republican primary voters. They (no different from Democratic primary voters) don't generally take kindly to moderates. So Crist will have to toe the party line to an extent. John McCain discovered this after his 2000 run, which is why he became so much more conservative and less of a maverick in the next 8 years. Crist will discover the same thing.
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Not because of any shortcomings of his, but because that's not the way it works, and it doesn't look like it's the way the Republican Party wants to go at the moment.
If you look at what happens to parties whose positions aren't popular with the voters any more, what normally happens is...
1) Many of their supporters leave, the ones who remain are the true believers in its ideology. They think the answer to losing the election is to return to the true path, and then they'll win again. They also can't believe that the other side's policies could actually work.
2) They go through a period of being even more to right or the left than they were, and picking leaders that reflect their base, not what the voters want
3) They spend a fair few years losing elections, unwilling to change, sure they will be proven right, and things will be back the way they were
4) They get fed up of losing elections, a new generaion of leaders comes along, they realise the country has changed, and their party must change
5) There's a possibly painful process of change, and the party becomes electable again.
The bottom line is people don't change their passionately held positions quickly. They don't change them just because the voters don't agree, and they don't change them because polciies based on their views turned out be a disaster. Given the chance, they'll keep on rationalising for years, even decades.
That's not a criticism of Republicans, it applies equallty to poliitical parties of all persuasions around the world.
So if Charlie Crist wants to change the Republican Party, the chances are the time is not right yet for him to have a chance of succeeding.
It'll be a while before they'll be ready to face up to these trends:
http://pewresearch.org/assets/publications/1207-1.gif
http://pewresearch.org/assets/publications/1207-3.gif
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1207/republican-party-identification-slips-nationwide-pennsylvania-specter-switch
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Answered Question
Best Answer Chosen by Asker
| May 01, 2009 04:14 PM |
1. Yes he will run for Senate.
2. No, he will not change the face of the Republican party.
Crist has been looking more and more like a Senate candidate rather than a candidate for reelection to the governorship.
Everybody is looking at Crist for the 2012 or possibly 2016 presidential race. And right now, he is extremely popular in the state of Florida. The problem is, Florida's economy is starting to falter. The last thing you want when you're running for president is to look like a failed governor.
If Crist runs for Senate, I think he would win in a walk. The best candidate on the Democratic side is a somewhat little-known representative named Kendrick Meek. And despite his impressive fundraising, he is getting crushed in the polls statewide.
However, I don't think Crist will change the face of the party. To get elected, you need to be able to win over Republican primary voters. They (no different from Democratic primary voters) don't generally take kindly to moderates. So Crist will have to toe the party line to an extent. John McCain discovered this after his 2000 run, which is why he became so much more conservative and less of a maverick in the next 8 years. Crist will discover the same thing.
| Asker's Rating: |
• I agree with you both that he'll run because he's got bigger aspirations and FL is gonna be facing budgetary issues.
In the short term Crist will be unable to change the Republican party or change their appeal, but he's still a young man and may be looking as far forward as 2016. But before that the Republican party will go through a spectacular crash and burn. Their leaders political leaders are inept and their mouthpieces like Hannity, Limbaugh and Beck have said so much they have no credibility.
In the short term Crist will be unable to change the Republican party or change their appeal, but he's still a young man and may be looking as far forward as 2016. But before that the Republican party will go through a spectacular crash and burn. Their leaders political leaders are inept and their mouthpieces like Hannity, Limbaugh and Beck have said so much they have no credibility.
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Reply 
Other Answers (1)
May 01, 2009 04:20 PM
He might run for the Senate, but he's unlikely to be able to change the face of the Republican Party. Not because of any shortcomings of his, but because that's not the way it works, and it doesn't look like it's the way the Republican Party wants to go at the moment.
If you look at what happens to parties whose positions aren't popular with the voters any more, what normally happens is...
1) Many of their supporters leave, the ones who remain are the true believers in its ideology. They think the answer to losing the election is to return to the true path, and then they'll win again. They also can't believe that the other side's policies could actually work.
2) They go through a period of being even more to right or the left than they were, and picking leaders that reflect their base, not what the voters want
3) They spend a fair few years losing elections, unwilling to change, sure they will be proven right, and things will be back the way they were
4) They get fed up of losing elections, a new generaion of leaders comes along, they realise the country has changed, and their party must change
5) There's a possibly painful process of change, and the party becomes electable again.
The bottom line is people don't change their passionately held positions quickly. They don't change them just because the voters don't agree, and they don't change them because polciies based on their views turned out be a disaster. Given the chance, they'll keep on rationalising for years, even decades.
That's not a criticism of Republicans, it applies equallty to poliitical parties of all persuasions around the world.
So if Charlie Crist wants to change the Republican Party, the chances are the time is not right yet for him to have a chance of succeeding.
It'll be a while before they'll be ready to face up to these trends:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1207/republican-party-identification-slips-nationwide-pennsylvania-specter-switch
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