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M$4 March 15, 2009 10:46 PM

How close is Iran to having nuclear weapons? Please cite sources and develop consensus range based on them.

edit: sorry... meant to say Iran, NOT iraq!
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March 16, 2009 03:48 AM | view on twitter
Everything I have seen through googleing and such seems to suggest that Iran is about 2 years away from having nuclear weapons. Before the argument that they are only researching and producing nuclear material for energy development comes up, I will present the question to those who feel we are stuck in the WMD search phase of the Bush administration, if they are seeking nuclear power for just energy production, why has their nuclear production of fissal material come so close to the increased research and development of increase capability of their SCUD missiles and other long range missles? Back to topic though... The two year timeline may be affected by several factors. Namely the recession that is being felt world wide. Iran is also feeling the effects of what many still seem to think is just a recession in the United States. Our economy however has a global effect. If Iran falls into the same financial crisis we are coming up on, the timeline will be delayed because they will lack the funding for production and research. The second factor I look at is the increasing scrutiny that Iran is facing in regards to their nuclear production from the U.N. and other governments worldwide. Even Russia is now seeming to regret their previous support to Iran's nuclear development.
Source(s):
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0302/p99s01-wome.html
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hsD5c8LKRs-hljl5RRUfHjGq...
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/arak.htm



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March 16, 2009 04:01 AM
That's a good answer, also the sources are solid, much better then mine.

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March 15, 2009 10:53 PM | view on twitter
Sure you don't mean Iran? With the U.S. military right in the middle of "Iraq" I can't see them even trying to develop nuclear weapons.

Helpful Answer?  (2)   (1)    Tip smokenherb for this answer
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March 15, 2009 11:21 PM
That would have been a much more interesting question.

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March 15, 2009 11:53 PM
I can't believe somebody rated this answer unhelpful.
This was exactly the point and @jason changed the question.

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March 15, 2009 11:54 PM
Damn, I thought you posted Iraq not Iran sorry disregard my comment.

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March 16, 2009 12:45 AM
Yes it was Iraq but changed to Iran. Jeez!

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March 15, 2009 10:56 PM | view on twitter
Not that close, the Bush Administration famously invaded Iraq on the guess that Iraq had some form of "Nuclear Weapons" one of their biggest pieces of evidence America thought they has was uranium being imported to Iraq from Niger.

Diplomat Joe Wilson was sent to look into the claims
--quote--
In February 2002, I was informed by officials at the Central Intelligence Agency that Vice President Dick Cheney's office had questions about a particular intelligence report. While I never saw the report, I was told that it referred to a memorandum of agreement that documented the sale of uranium yellowcake -- a form of lightly processed ore -- by Niger to Iraq in the late 1990's. The agency officials asked if I would travel to Niger to check out the story so they could provide a response to the vice president's office.
--/quote--

He concluded that no Uranium was sent to Iraq
--quote--
Given the structure of the consortiums that operated the mines, it would be exceedingly difficult for Niger to transfer uranium to Iraq. Niger's uranium business consists of two mines, Somair and Cominak, which are run by French, Spanish, Japanese, German and Nigerian interests. If the government wanted to remove uranium from a mine, it would have to notify the consortium, which in turn is strictly monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Moreover, because the two mines are closely regulated, quasi-governmental entities, selling uranium would require the approval of the minister of mines, the prime minister and probably the president. In short, there's simply too much oversight over too small an industry for a sale to have transpired.
--/quote--

Some say that this revelation angered the Bush Administration to the point where they outed Joe Wilson's wife Valeri Plame.

Interesting indeed.
I don't think Iraq will be close, they have many issues regarding reconstruction before they think about starting a Nuclear program.
Source(s):
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C07E3D61E3AF935A35754C0A965...


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March 16, 2009 03:08 AM
ok...when I answered the question is said "Iraq" please disregard.

But, I should have known you meant Iran.
If that's the case, here is a very recent story about Iran Nuke capabilities from CBS.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/03/01/world/main4836902.shtml

Here is a key quote

--quote--
State Department spokesman Robert A. Wood said Sunday that it was not possible say how much fissile material Iran has accumulated.

"There are differing view not only outside government but also inside the government" on how far Iran has gone, Wood said. He added that while he was not suggesting Mullen was incorrect, "We just don't know" exactly how much fissile material Iran now holds.

"We are concerned they are getting close" to having enough to build a nuclear weapon, he added. Wood spoke to reporters traveling with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in Egypt.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran has processed 2,222 pounds of low-enriched uranium. But the report left unclear whether Iran is now capable, even if it wanted, of further processing that material into a sufficient quantity of highly enriched uranium to arm one weapon.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who like Mullen appeared on the Sunday talk shows, did not go as far as Mullen. The Iranians, Gates said, are "not close to a weapon at this point and so there is some time" for continued diplomatic efforts.

And the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice, recently told National Public Radio that the IAEA report "confirms what we all had feared and anticipated, which is that Iran remains in pursuit of its nuclear program."
--/quote--

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March 16, 2009 04:41 AM
I understand that your answer was based on the original question of Iraq and not Iran. However, as I am always intrigued to get into a healthy debate, the only source you sited was a 2003 article written by Joe Wilson, who in the same article states that he spent 8 days of the time he was there, in Nigeria, "drinking sweet mint tea, meeting with dozens of people". The article while an informative read of the man's opinion of the yellow cake uranium not originating from Nigeria, does not provide the slightest shed of proof that the yellow cake uranium was not in Iraq at the time of his report. Whether the 550 TONS of yellow cake removed from Iraq was actually from Nigeria or some place else doesn't matter. The TRUTH is that it was there and has since been removed. To say that it wasn't there as a POSSIBLE means to be enriched in the future under a nuclear weapons program would be false. I can speak from personal experience to this because I myself provided overwatch of the convoys tasked to move the yellow cake from Tawaitha to Baghdad.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/07/05/world/main4235028.shtml
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/07/the_550_tons_of_yellowcake.html

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March 16, 2009 01:25 AM | view on twitter
They may not yet but I'm sure they are working on it. I think they'd buy them rather than build them. I'm sure Russia would help them out there. What's to stop them, another impotent UN resolution?

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March 16, 2009 07:06 PM
Actually, Russia is coming to their senses. They do not want Iran to have nuclear weapons either.

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March 16, 2009 03:29 PM | view on twitter
Does it matter?
They want them and are building (and testing) and in turn, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and possibly Turkey will now (already?) pursue them. Why? To kill Jews? Each other? Do these governments not study Global wind patterns? ANY Nuclear strike would send fall out through out the entire region (2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) away from the disaster zone!!) and rain death.

ANYBODY who has done (read) studies on Three Mile Island and Chernobyl has seen the devastating capability for fallout to travel "hundreds of miles." Entire swaths of land would be unusable for "hundreds of years..." What is Iran thinking? They used to be the pearl of culture in the Middle east - now they are the arrogant aggressor. To confront Israel? Please.

One more thing... I have heard many times that "Israel has Nukes - why would the Arabs or Muslim counties not then want to have them?" Israel does not sabre rattle like some countries in the middle east and threatenj their neighbors like so ... They do not threaten to wipe people off the earth and kill them where they stand. It is quite possible, however, that some countries are afraid for just this reason.

Please, No Nukes...
Source(s):
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,411056,00.html

http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-5169206.html

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/South+Pole%27s+%27hot%27+snow:+Chernobyl+sour...

Just search ... it is everywhere!


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March 16, 2009 07:26 PM
Does it matter? Personnaly I find it to be a great question and one that anyone serving in the military is interested in knowing. If Iran begins developing nuclear weapons it will greatly impact the security of the entire Middle East, as well as reaching out to Russia and many of our allied countries.

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March 16, 2009 09:33 PM
Sorry, I was being rather witty in that they are already developing them! So why ask the question.

What are we going to do now is what we should be discussing.
(See my few examples that I added links for).

Benjamin Barnett
http://Twitter.com/PoliticiansTV

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March 16, 2009 06:41 PM | view on twitter
who cares if iran is getting into nukes!
cuz even if they get it where are they going to use it? (just think about it)
after all , one must ask these questions:
HOW FAR IS US FROM DEVELOPING THE LATEST GENERATION OF NUKE BOMB WHICH ARE BY FAR STRONGER THAN YOU CAN IMAGIN?
ALSO WHO ON EARTH HAS USED THIS DEADLY WEOPON SO FAR?
WHO IN THE MIDDLE EAST HAS GOT MORE THAN 200 OF THEM READY TO SHOOT?
only the war mongers ie: US, UK, Russians... need these kinda weapons to leave more footprints on this planet, violating international rules.
you do not know what your media is feeding you. do not leave your brain in the brand spanking new condition and use it!

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March 16, 2009 08:36 PM
Time to start my rant...
To begin with you never even began to answer the question or attempt to add sources of any sort. Now, lets break your answer down from the top...
Who cares? Really you have to ask that? Those that care would be the future inocent victims of Irans PLANNED use of nuclear weapons. Iran's leaders have stated numerous times that Israel needs to be eliminated. They are also known to support Al Qaida and other terrorist organizations. So what happens when Iran develops the weapons and then provides them to those organizations? I would venture a guess that due to their relationships with those organizations Israel will not be the only destination for those weapons.
Question time... Your first question is absolutly ridiculos! You are really asking for people to use their imagination to determine the "latest generation" of a nuclear weapon, and the United States production of it? Lets say I have a far reaching imagination and would like to build a nuclear weapon that the weapon itself and the included nuclear fall out of that weapon would target and affect only terrorists, radicals and those that support them. Are you really expecting me to imagine that being improved and developed by anyone? I think not...
Your second question... Do some research on the cold war. The reason the US and Russia never used their weapons was based on the Mutually Assured Destruction concept. If one or the other would have launched an attack on the other, the other would in turn react with the same force. Iran achiving nuclear weapons capabilities however would probably change the fact that they have not been used. Radical Muslims who believe that becoming a martyr is a good thing, would have no issues fullfilling their plan to destroy an entire nation and would look at the innocent casualties of their own as martyrs and think they just did them all a favor.
Question 3... No country in the middle east has more than 200 nuclear weapons. Not to my knowledge anyhow. Nor is that supported in anyway by any type of report. Though it has been reported that Israel has nuclear weapons, it has never been confirmed. I would believe it though as I am sure many others would as well. As far as them having more that 200 of them, I don't think so. But, if you have any source that says otherwise, by all means please share it with us.
And now for your conclusion... Only the war mongers need them to leave more footprints on the planet? I honestly have no idea what you mean by leaving a footprint on the planet and won't even try to speculate. Violating international rules? What rules has the US violated in regards to our nuclear program and for that matter what rules have the UK or Russia violated. And to back up to your list of war mongers... Because as you yourself stated "Only the war mongers need these kinds of weapons." (Pardon my correction of your typo for the quote.) you should have also added the following countries to your "war monger" list. France (yes they have them to), China, India, Pakistan, North Korea. All of these contries are declared nuclear states. Also, South Africa, Israel, and Iraq are nuclear states in the shadows.
And your final comment as well as mine... I don't know what my media is feeding me? Actually I do. I tend to use my brain very well when it comes to staying informed. Try taking your own advise and use your brain. Do some research and develop an original thought. You can start here if you care to.
http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/

Jason and others who actually read this... Sorry for the long rant here. Hope it was at least informative to a few of you.

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March 17, 2009 04:05 PM
US National Intelligence says that the earliest date by which Iran could make a nuclear weapon would be late 2009 but that this is "very unlikely".
But if Pakistan has nuclear weapons now, then Iran also already have them. Courtesy: A. Q. Khan of Pakistan

The National Intelligence Estimate plays down any early threat of an Iranian nuclear weapon. It assesses "with high confidence" that Iran did have a nuclear weapons programme until 2003, but this was discovered and Iran stopped it.
The NIE adds: "We do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons." The assessment admits that Iran appears "less determined" to develop nuclear weapons than US intelligence had previously thought.

In 2004, the IAEA held discussions with Iranian officials in which it was admitted that the original designs for the centrifuges had been acquired from Pakistan. However, members of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) insisted that no work relating to the P-2 design had occured until 2002, and that the resulting centrifuges (referred to as IR-2) had been fabricated entirely in Iran, but Iranian scientists. Following these disclosures, in early March 2005, Pakistan acknowledged A. Q. Khan had provided centrifuges to Iran, though it denied having had any knowledge of the transactions.

In May 2008, A.Q. Khan publically stated that elements of his confession relating to proliferation to various countries including Iran had been coerced and otherwise fabricated. Khan said he had been pressured by General Pervez Musharraf, in power in Pakistan at the time of the confessions in 2004, to admit to a wide variety of proliferation activities in exchange for being quickly pardoned. The United States and others reminded unconvinced that Khan had not assisted nations like Iran in their nuclear programs.
Source(s):
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/khan-iran.htm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4


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March 18, 2009 06:56 PM | view on twitter
Answering this question is like asking when a man trying to reconstruct a '57 Chevy will eventually have a working model in mint condition. The man has some parts lying around in his garage, but it's definitely not a '57 Chevy now. Iran is in a similar spot. It complies with some of the IAEA regs, and in other areas it does not. The best answer is, maybe never. International cooperation and regulation will effectively prevent Iran from obtaining enough components to prevent a working device.
Source(s):
Look at all the IAEI reports. They are available along with recon photos on ISIS.


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