1) Will Barack Obama serve his full term?

He's almost certain to. The only things that usually stop any President, or for that matter any poltiician, serving out their term are major scandals or ill health.

Whatever you think about his policies, he's certainly highly disciplined, not scandal prone, and in good physical shape as one of the youngest and fittest Presidents ever.

The only thing at all likely to prevent him completing his term is if, God forbid, he was killed. And given the strong reactions he arouses in some, and his willingness to make trips out to places like Cairo, there has to be some chance of that. But still not very likely to happen, as I think the US Secret Service knows what it's doing.

2) Will he get re-elected?

Most likely, but that requires taking a view on how his various efforts will work out. If the economy recovers in the next few years then he'll be in a strong position. If you are convinced that his policies will lead to economic doom then you might think otherwise.

The question below shows my thinking on the likely poltiical dynamics over the next decade or so, and has some graphs on party affiliation trends:

https://www.mahalo.com/answers/news/will-charlie-crist-run-for-senate-and-change-the-face-of-the-republican-party

Basically, political history all over the world suggests it usually takes parties quite some time to adjust and recover after the kind of reverse the Republicans suffered, and at the same time the demographic trends are all heading in a direction that would tend to favor Democrats.

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