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This is difficult to really say with any certainty. If you compare it to the lifespan of the Cassette Tape (introduced in 1964 and declined to the point of under a quarter million produced in 2007) you are looking at a lifespan of 43 years. Compact Disc's were released in 1982 so we would be looking at 2025...
However, it is common that new technology becomes obsolete faster then previous technologies (this is why computer technology grows so quickly)... So it is possible that digital formats will kill off the format before that 43 year lifespan is over.
If you take a look at the use of CDs in the form of storage for computers you see an even shorter lifespan with the previous technology of floppy drives (8in - 1969, 5.25in - 1976 and 3.5in - 1984) already having disappeared from use years ago.
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http://www.rmeinc.com/detail.aspx?ID=271
And that is the technology that lost.
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only rarely do u see a computer with a floppy drive these days....so i'm thinking it will be that way with CD too.
they might still sell them tho. there are still places u can buy floppy discs.
For music.............
if u are strictly talking about the music CD (cd audio) then i would think it would maybe even be sooner. i haven't bought a music CD since i was 12yo. That was 8 years ago. CDs are too bulky to use for playing music and they don't store enough music.
then also i think how the music people sued college kids and stuff has made people not want to buy from em too. maybe sorta hastening their demise so to speak.
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| February 19, 2009 12:05 AM |
However, it is common that new technology becomes obsolete faster then previous technologies (this is why computer technology grows so quickly)... So it is possible that digital formats will kill off the format before that 43 year lifespan is over.
If you take a look at the use of CDs in the form of storage for computers you see an even shorter lifespan with the previous technology of floppy drives (8in - 1969, 5.25in - 1976 and 3.5in - 1984) already having disappeared from use years ago.
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February 19, 2009 02:53 AM
I'd bet a VERY VERY VERY long time. Here is a link where you can still buy a betamax tape. http://www.rmeinc.com/detail.aspx?ID=271
And that is the technology that lost.
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February 20, 2009 12:37 PM
i would think it might happen before too awful long. most computers now have DVD drives and some even Bluray. so in a few years they could do away with the CD compatibility without too much flak. only rarely do u see a computer with a floppy drive these days....so i'm thinking it will be that way with CD too.
they might still sell them tho. there are still places u can buy floppy discs.
For music.............
if u are strictly talking about the music CD (cd audio) then i would think it would maybe even be sooner. i haven't bought a music CD since i was 12yo. That was 8 years ago. CDs are too bulky to use for playing music and they don't store enough music.
then also i think how the music people sued college kids and stuff has made people not want to buy from em too. maybe sorta hastening their demise so to speak.
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