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Will the European Community adopt a common currency?
Will a Common European Currency adversely affect the dollar as the world reserve currency?
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| September 28, 2009 12:32 AM |
A: Huh? It already has. It's called the Euro.
Q: Will a Common European Currency adversely affect the dollar as the world reserve currency?
A: It can't "adversly affect the dollar as the world reserve currency"... only the US dollar can do that to itself, in which case international buyers *might* choose the Euro as it's default international currency.
A lot of people - especially Americans - forget that the US dollar didn't become the default international currency until the 1950's.
Prior to that, it was the British pound, and global buyers and sellers were very tenatious about hanging onto it as their default currency, long after the British Empire had show clear signs of disolving.
But... there came a point, what with the US becoming the major force behind NATO combined with the way it made a business out of going all over the world making deals with countries to set up bases, combined with Britian taking a back seat to NATO, that people just shrugged and decided to switch to the US greenback as their default international currency.
IF the US continues to botch management of internal finance by letting speculators do things to it like nearly collapsed the US economy a year ago, then yeah... maybe international buyers and sellers will choose to mediate in the Euro... or maybe the Japanese ten-yen note... or maybe the Chinese raminbi...
There's plenty of evidence that the world would have started switching to something else already - so serious was the near collapse of the US economic system a year ago - but China is keeping it propped up, because China was buying billions of dollars of US T-bills per month through the 90's, such that if the US dollar collapsed, then she, China, would loose trillions from bad investments in US T-bills, and can't afford to have the US dollar collapse nor have it go away as the default currency for international trade.
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The Euro has been gaining strength against the dollar. However, the Euro does not have the strength to become the world currency. A new European currency will need to be created to revival the dollar.
The Yuan is not in the position to become the world reserve currency.
Europe does not seem to be an economic powerhouse. The lose of confidence began with Lehman. Central banks had to inject billions in liquidity to prevent systematic failure. The massive liquidity will pushed up inflation.
The dollar should have become stronger against the Euro because the US economy is much stronger in manufacturing. However, trillions of dollars of debt are siphoning earnings, raising rates, raising taxes, and narrowing profit margins.
Commodity prices should be the indication of a weaker or stronger dollar. The commodity rally should be inversely proportional to the stock market. If commodity prices drop the dollar is stronger and the stock market depreciates. Sometimes commodity prices and the strength of the dollar diverge. Between 2001 and 2008, commodity prices drop as the dollar lost 41% of its value. Commodity prices should have rallied as the demand for the dollar dropped. However, divergence occurred.
In 2008, the dollar was involved in 86% of the $3.2 trillion in transaction per day, down from 90% in 2001. The dollar as the reserve currency is declining.
Look at the history of the dollar since 1971. The 1971 Dollar Reserve system is breaking down. One centralized bank for the world is being organized. Dollar reserves are not being build up in the central banks of the world, they are in decline. The Chinese and British are engineering a new reserve currency. As you have stated, the world reserve currency was once British. The World Economy will be worst. The US has more debt but the dollar will not be about to hold up. The fear is runaway inflation