Here is what I think, and why:

The Stock market is a leading indicator. It usually leads the economy by six to nine months. Employment is a lagging indicator. The economy will turn up several months before large companies start hiring.

This is what I look at.
The stock market indicates that things are maybe already or maybe about to get better.

Here what convinces me.
Last fall, I could drive to any restaurant within 30 miles at 6:00 PM on any day of the week, including Friday and Saturday. There would be no traffic for the drive and when I got there, the restaurant would be two thirds empty.

Now, traffic is significantly increased seven days a week and the restaurants are full on Friday and Saturday. They are still light during the week but last weekend I had to wait 30 minutes for a table on Saturday night.

Note that if you drive to work, there is no better indicator of current economic activity than the level of traffic you observe during the rush.

The malls are still virtually empty so we still have a long way to go but we have begun the journey.
Source(s):
Personal observation.


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