BBC News analysis:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8101621.stm

-- Quote

What is the evidence of electoral fraud?

The way the result was announced was very unusual. It came out in blocks of millions of votes, in percentages, rather than being announced province-by-province as in past elections.

And as the blocks of votes came in, the percentages for each candidate changed very, very little. That suggested that Mr Ahmadinejad did equally well in rural and urban areas. Conversely, it suggested that the other three losing candidates did equally badly in their home regions and provinces.

This overturns all precedents in Iranian politics and there has been no explanation, despite repeated questions, from the authorities.

It is all very suspicious. But it does not necessarily mean there has been widespread electoral fraud. For example, a group of international pollsters did an independent telephone survey three weeks ago which suggested a two-to-one level of popular support for Mr Ahmadinejad over Mr Mousavi, with the other candidates on less than two percent each.

-- /Quote

On the one hand, it looks like there are irregularities.

On the other hand, don't underestimate how much support Ahmadinejad actually has. He is popular in rural areas, and with the poor in the cities. Those people might not be out on the Tehran streets, and they certainly don't Twitter. But they probably did vote for him.

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