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robkim77 robkim77
 
December 21, 2008 02:25 PM

When shall we see an economic recovery?

I am talking about the Dow Jones recovery?
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toryduff toryduff
 
 December 21, 2008 05:01 PM
Stock market performance is a 'Leading Indicator' so you can expect to see the Dow bottom about 6 months before the economy bottoms.

I believe we will test 7500 at least one more time and possibly have a 'capitulation' or trade-off to a lower level. However, I also believe we will see the Dow test 10,000 a couple of times as well. We will probably trade in a range from 7500 to 10,000 for some time. Of course, anything can happen to change that ...

This is not investment advice, by the way, and should not be taken as anything but my own personal opinion.

In terms of the economy, I think Summer - Autumn of 2009 will see some stabilization and possibly a 'bottom' of sorts. Unfortunately, there will be a lot of businesses going bankrupt and a lot of layoffs between now and then. Recovery will be slow and difficult. What we are looking for now is a slowing of the velocity of the drop!
Asker's Rating:
• I think it is going to be rocky riding out of this recession. The markets are volatile and will take time to post solid gains.

I like this answer because it is very close to what I think will happen. Very insightful answer.


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veronicaqw... veronicaqw...
 
December 21, 2008 03:56 PM
It's coming, next spring. Optimism will hit the country with a new President in place and as long as everyone doesn't panic, we will bounce back. The DJ always bounces back. The recent devastating ice storms and winter storms have already put money back in the pockets of tree cutting businesses, hotels, restaurants and publicly traded companies like Lowe's and Home Depot.
Source(s):
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15838459/


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ssharon ssharon
 
December 21, 2008 05:10 PM
I'm not as optimistic as the previous answers. Our economy isn't just about ourselves, it is about the world. If US companies go under they get replaced by foreign companies. Even companies in other countries that do a lot of business with the US will feel this impact and may hold off on extending credit/merchandise until US retailers redeem themselves. Building that amount of trust takes time and political scandal after political scandal after ponzi scheme only show that the US isn't worth its word any more.

I don't expect to ever see a full recovery in some sectors because we never should have been in that position in the first place. We shouldn't want to return to the days of everyone living off of credit and buying things they can't afford. And who wants crazy high house prices?

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randulo randulo
 
December 21, 2008 05:30 PM
It is my hope that the market will return to the value it had within 2-3 years, barring anything unimaginable, probably not before and hopefully no more than 5 years from now. Many industries will suffer, some will be marginalized. A lot of talented people think this is a great time to innovate and those who do will be richly rewarded.

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