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fnazeeri fnazeeri
 
M$2 December 23, 2008 04:03 AM

Ron, do you view the current environment as more similar to '82, '87, '01 or '29?

Each is plausible yet which has a huge impact on the appropriate actions.
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craigi craigi
 
 December 23, 2008 06:36 AM
`29. This isn't over by a long shot. We have another 1.5-2 years to go in this cycle, with the worst yet to come. (Sorry.)

The current 'bailouts' have extended the crash to a slow-motion train wreck -- except a lot is hidden by the 'czar's' tunnel. The next time the Smaller 3 come back asking for more money, the economy will be no better off, and they will be too inept to act as quickly as they really need to cut staff, terminate contracts with unions, etc.

Simultaneously, commercial paper will be skidding into the back of the train, all ad-supported industries will be in free-fall, and layoffs will be massive across all industries except government, where the average government worker will simply work fewer hours.
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tracebooks tracebooks
 
December 23, 2008 06:08 AM
I wonder if Ron will answer for $2?

(I'd say '87: lots of money lost in retirement accounts (although the fraud reasons are not as big a part of it here); gas prices aren't rising like they were in '01; factories closing like '82)

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fnazeeri fnazeeri
 
December 23, 2008 06:15 AM
Whether he answers or not has a big impact on whether he can lay claim to "angel investor" status or not...

And yes, this whole fraud/Madoff dimension is crazy. I wonder how much fraud was revealed in '29...

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keithold keithold
 
December 23, 2008 06:53 AM
G'day fnazeeri,

Thank you for your question.

This seems to be the worst financial crisis. Certainly, the companies that have had to be bailed out such as major banks and the big 3 are of much greater magnitude than anything from 82, 87 or 01.

http://www.techspikes.com/2008/09/the-wall-street-financial-crisis-1929-vs-2008/

The US economy has been in recession since 2007 and the crisis is getting worse. Most world economies are in recession or going into recession. The cost to the US economy is already $5 trillion,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_crisis_of_2008#Bailout_of_U.S._financial_system

This is more than World War II or any other expenditure by the US Government.

http://clipmarks.com/clipmark/081AAADE-DB1C-4065-9EC3-13FE5D9057B8/

Regards

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