How many voice mails are left a month in the US?
Also for those who want to make a guess, that is fine but the tip will go to the best answer. The best answer will be the one that has the most facts backing up the answer.
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M$10 Answers
Here are a few statistics that are relevant:
- 75% of calls are not completed on the first attempt (a study done by AT&T, number had been posted on UCSB webpage).
- 78% of callers prefer to leave voice messages rather than wait to get in direct contact.
- approximately 82 billion calls are originated in a year, according to the FCC.
(82,000,000,000/12)*0.75*0.78 = ~ 4 billion voicemails in the US per month. This is roughly 13 voicemails per person, per month, in the U.S. This may seem high, but voicemail is used constantly by automated systems, quite a number of people screen their calls, and business communication involves a rather high use of voicemail.
Of course there are some caveats in the statistics -- many of them are for years past (2003 for the FCC statistic, for example), and the surveys may even have targeted business personnel more than individuals. However, for rough order of magnitude estimation, I am pretty confident in this solution.
You can leave an optional "tip" with Mahalo's virtual currency, Mahalo Dollars. If you are asking a difficult question that might require some research, or if you'd like a wide variety of feedback, a higher tip often leads to more answers to your question.
M$You can leave an optional "tip" with Mahalo's virtual currency, Mahalo Dollars. If you are asking a difficult question that might require some research, or if you'd like a wide variety of feedback, a higher tip often leads to more answers to your question.
M$
I will give out the tip. I already see a answer that if no one does a better one I will pick as the winner.
Also this data will be used for my company, PhoneTag
Another useful thing I found while researching:
http://www.fcc.gov/ib/sand/mniab/traffic/traffic_data_06.html
kcarter not to burst your bubble but i already included that information in my answer above.
And i also mentioned that, this information is a couple years old at best. :o/
PS: And that being the case my original *Educated* assessment of 1 billion in todays economy would be right on the money.
(This mainly being the case that text message rates in the US have dropped dramatically since 2 years ago with the introduction of text package plans and widespread mainstream prepaid adoption by the public)
And not everyone uses a phone if AT ALL.
EG: Babies, Amish, VPN users etc.
OK, I'm back :)
I have read on multiple sites that there are 350 billion voicemails left per year, globally. Here are the sources:
http://www.reallysarahsyndication.com/2008/07/16/why-tap-when-you-can-talk/
http://www.bmighty.com/hardware_software/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=209903207
Both articles cite the same source: a MEX (emerging markets) conference presentation by a company called SpinVox, that seems to be similar to your company in that it does voice to text conversion. I think the point of the presentation was to show the difference between voicemail stats and emerging texting stats.
So, if I take that big annual, global figure and divide it into months I get: 29,167,000,000 calls per month (rounded).
Now I need to figure out the United States' portion of this monthly call volume.
Since there is no reliable statistical calling information available to me from a u.s. in the global market perspective, I am going to go by population density.
According to www.census.gov, America makes up 4.5% of the world's population.
4.5% of the monthly voicemail =
1,312,500,000 (1 billion, 312.5 million)
Woo!
I am actually going to sleep now. Will leave open at least till morning. Happy hunting...
Research of this magnitude if backed by legitimate verifiable sources would be worth much more than one-hundred dollars. There are two reasons why I did not take a crack at this.
Man-hours to accomplish this task using proper scientific methods would require over forty (this is an assumption on my part but also includes time spent by people scrubbing their databases for the information)
The information being requested is jealously guarded and protected not only by corporate policies but also in some cases it could be protected by law. This would then require very heavy social networking skills and involve calling in on favors and all sorts of political bruhaha in order to obtain the information.
My initial reaction was to wonder, as you have xds, what was to become of the information once Jamie had secured it. Problem is, with such a high payout and such a low chance of somebody providing 100 dollars worth of research, what will happen to the tip?
This leads me to a related question I asked earlier - http://tr.im/2jio ; does the amount of the rescinded tip affect the ratings for the user, or does an unpaid one dollar tip reflect the same as an unpaid one-hundred dollar tip?
*update - new question added.
http://www.mahalo.com/answers/mahalo-answers-community/does-the-amount-of-the-rescinded-tip-affect-the-ratings-for-a-mahalo-answers-user
Jamie before you do could you atleast tell us all what this is for ?
Inquiring minds would like to know.
==============================
http://www.tmia.org/main/about_mmec.html
Multi Messaging Educational Committee (MMEC),
Early in 1993, the committee released the results of a comprehensive
study of voice mail subscribers and callers, "Voice Messaging: A Vital
Link in Business Communications."
Despite these concerns, callers surveyed consistently chose voice mail
over alternative forms of call answering. Nearly 60% of respondents
said they prefer leaving recorded voice messages to leaving messages
with an administrative assistants or receptionists. Similarly, 78%
preferred leaving detailed voice mail messages to waiting to reach an
operator or hanging up and calling back later.
http://www.commserv.ucsb.edu/hpage/docs/vmail/whyvmail.htm
We Can't Afford Voice Mail - Or Can We?
A few years ago, AT&T conducted an extensive study on the
effectiveness of the telephone in the work place. The conclusions of
this study were:
75% of all business calls are not completed on the first attempt.
Put another way, three out of four calls do not reach the desired
party.
50% of all calls are for one-way transfers of information. In other
words, one out of every two calls is to either deliver or request
information.
67% of all calls are considered to be less important than the work
they interrupt.
50% of all calls are longer than they need to be due to "chit chat";
people talk about the weather, their vacations, their weekends, etc.
http://www.tmcnet.com/articles/itmag/0998/featurearticle004.htm
Voice And Fax Messaging In An Internet World, September 1998
Intentional messaging means deliberately leaving someone a message
instead of placing a phone call, and then only leaving a message if
you can't connect directly with the person called. Intentional
messaging elevates voice mail technology from an erstwhile role as an
answering machine to the status of effective business tool and
productivity expander. Why? Reflect on these business scenarios: (See
several examples.)
http://www.crsonline.net/techarticles/tech_column-56.htm
Voice Messaging - It's Your Call
In 2002, I believe callers not only expect voice mail but also prefer
it. From my own experience, I am far more comfortable leaving my own
recorded message than relying on a third party (receptionist or
administrative staff) to interpret my message.
http://www.poctalk.com/docs/WhitePaper.doc
Callex PocketPC with ETPlayer Market and Technology
Unlike email, voicemail has not generally been used as an intentional
messaging medium despite the fact that research shows 50% of all
business calls are intended only for a one-way exchange of
information. Most real-time business conversations are initiated with
the intent of conveying or requesting specific information. Many
times callers prefer to make certain calls at a time when they expect
to receive voicemail in order to avoid more lengthy real-time
conversations with time-consuming chit chat. Yet voicemail systems
generally don’t have the flexibility of email with regard to replying
and forwarding messages because of widespread voicemail system
incompatibilities
http://www.opengroup.org/comm/the_message/magazine/mmv5n3/managing.htm
Managing the Trend Toward Increasing Use of Electronic Messaging Tools
The CommCore/EMA/CCM survey revealed 20% of workers use e-mail
specifically to avoid speaking with someone in person. And many call
when they know the caller will not be there, and they can leave a
message.
You can leave an optional "tip" with Mahalo's virtual currency, Mahalo Dollars. If you are asking a difficult question that might require some research, or if you'd like a wide variety of feedback, a higher tip often leads to more answers to your question.
M$
Excellent digging, However still year(s) old data.
This is getting a little ridiculous.
In the morning i'm going to call my regional manager and see if we can get intouch with a PR person at meridian .
(One of the biggest VM providers in the world for SMB's/Enterprises)
Maybe I can look at this from a standpoint of market share and scalability. Which again is a more REALISTIC approach to getting more solid numbers.
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M$No just kidding I have no idea just GIV ME THE MONEY I am in the maffia. Jk. But seriously giv it to me
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M$
See: http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-284932A1.pdf
You can leave an optional "tip" with Mahalo's virtual currency, Mahalo Dollars. If you are asking a difficult question that might require some research, or if you'd like a wide variety of feedback, a higher tip often leads to more answers to your question.
M$You can leave an optional "tip" with Mahalo's virtual currency, Mahalo Dollars. If you are asking a difficult question that might require some research, or if you'd like a wide variety of feedback, a higher tip often leads to more answers to your question.
M$So, my WAG is 2 per phone active person per day. I'd say 1/6th of people in the US are "phone active". So, my wag is 100 million voicemails per day. So, 3 Billion in a month.
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M$
Come on, Jamie Mr. Voice Mail Blog Company guy... ;) Business voice mail systems that do have loggers on them are not released publicly. Or aggregated. By anyone.
And personal answering machines are never logged. With no hope of being aggregated.
It's _impossible_ to know.
Anyone with an "educated" number is still just WAGing with a spreadsheet, and calling themselves something pretentious like "Forrester Research Group". Plus, charging you hundreds or thousands of $'s for the privilege of having a "report" in your hands.
Probably not a bad guess, but I am really looking for something with some facts behind it.
I'm sure there are people out there with some "inside" information - anyone who works tech for a phone company, or someone with knowledge of voicemail system maintenance... Not every answer would have to be a guess out of left field.
In that case Jamiesiminoff i can tell you first hand knowledge as someone who used to work for one of the major cellphone carriers in the united states they are very tight lipped about that data.
I remember when the switch to the MWI indicator was happening and I imposed the question to someone that works for T-Mobile PR in my area and they wouldn't even give me a rough estimate .
ALSO: (See my edit below my answer)
That's what I'm saying. There's nothing to bring because it is impossible because 2 of your 3 data points simply don't exist. Anyone who says otherwise is a WAGing fool. Paying $100 for an "educated" WAG is no better than paying $100 for an "uneducated" WAG.
(Is this where Chris Rock drops his mic and walks off stage? Nope, I'm feisty tonight and dragging it out cause I'm a bored insomniac...)
Seriously, I'd ask for some HEAVY methodology documentation if you're going to hand out the $100 to someone. I mean, any monkey can start guesstimating by finding some bogus "blah blah estimates they get 200,000 calls per day through their call center" kind of reference, and then extrapolating or whatever.
But, at the end of the day... it will _all_ be bogus. If you're working on a business plan/capital begging plan, then you simply have to point to everyone's blackberry in the room and say "convergence needs to go both ways". You'll be fine.
If needed, just posit the hypothetical like you've done, I've done, and xds has done.
Try this...
"What if, half the people in the US, left just 1 voice mail a week... that would be 500 million voice mails a month. 6 billion voice mails a year. What if we could micro transact just 0.1 % of those calls at 2 cents apiece? We're looking at revenues of $10,000 a month! $120,000 a year!"
(edit: Maybe we should bump that to 3/4's of the people leaving 3 voicemails a week, with us capturing 1%, and 10 cents for the presentation...Okay, phew, that's in the $2.5 to 3 million per month revenue range.)
I am thinking he is looking for somebody to gather data from each major phone carrier and then collate it into a spreadsheet like format where the data can be manipulated to display different results.
I think it is definitely a hundred dollar project. Of course, a project of this size would definitely take more than eight man hours. It would also require having contacts in the industry and being able to contact executive corporate directly and then somehow getting each of them to release the data. I have a feeling that some of the companies will feel that the data is worth money and will keep the information secret or hidden.
While it might be "impossible" to answer this with 100% accuracy, I will look for the best answer that has the most factual back up in it. I have done the population multipliers and have seen the press releases. I am hoping that someone will be able to bring a little more to the table for this question, which is also why I maxed the tip out to $100 for this.
My formula was
1.) NUMBER_US_CITIZENS / 2 for half the US population has Vmail.
2.) answer above * 3 for average person receives the a day
3.) answer above * 30 for about 30 days a month.
Me and the Gnome calculator.
You can leave an optional "tip" with Mahalo's virtual currency, Mahalo Dollars. If you are asking a difficult question that might require some research, or if you'd like a wide variety of feedback, a higher tip often leads to more answers to your question.
M$Simple math.
250 Million people X 2 Phones (one landline one cellphone) X a average of 5 voicemails
Take into account the following
Children under 3 can't speak or use a phone.
Children under 17 probably are still living at home or with roommates .
And elderly people rarely leave VM's
You can leave an optional "tip" with Mahalo's virtual currency, Mahalo Dollars. If you are asking a difficult question that might require some research, or if you'd like a wide variety of feedback, a higher tip often leads to more answers to your question.
M$
If you truly want someone to do that work for you, then I suggest asking the question privately of someone who has answered a lot of technology questions well. While your tip is enticing, people might not go to the extremes you want when the chances of them getting the tip is not more guaranteed.
The problem is there is to much risk involved with answering your question. No one here is probably going to want to do all that work when they are not certain it will be worth it.
Me and a friend of mine run a small MVNO Stats site
CellGuru.NET
I could make a few phone calls to PR people at T-Mo/Verizon/ATT (Possibly even Alltel)
but i don't think any 1 person is going to have the information you require.
That is why i'd say a better route would to go threw someone like NueStar or Meridian both makers of phone systems for large companies on both the landline and mobile side and see what their balance sheets look like (which is a matter of public record mind you) and then match that up to what hardware does what, and for how many users it can scale.
You might also be able to get intouch with someone from MEX and see what figures they have.
Jamie: If you want me to get you a more realistic figure (tip not withstanding) contact me personally threw the private answer system and i would be happy to make some calls for you. Hold the tip.
Finally Jamie I think your best bet would be to instead of contacting the actual major providers in the united states , I think you would be much better off to try and track down the hardware manufacturers that create the systems that the voicemails are stored on and see what kind of capacity they are rated for.
That would actually give you a much better idea of how many voicemails are left monthly in the USA.
MEX (Mobile user experience) and SpinVox had some rough figures about a year ago that 350 billion voicemail messages are left globally per year.
I would have to say with the jump in telemarketing in the past year that number must have skyrocketed!
Something else you have to take into account.
People do prefer text to voice in many situations. Why? Why tap when you can talk? Let me count the ways…
* Cost. SMS is usually cheaper per message than cellular calls are per minute.
* Privacy/Discretion. Often, you don’t want to be heard by your neighbors (eg, in a meeting). Or — sorry to break the news — they don’t want to hear you (eg, in a movie theater).
* Perceived time. I don’t know what the reality is, but people may consider texting (or emailing from a computer) to be less time consuming than talking by phone. Why? Partly because no time is spent on courtesy chit-chat; partly because time spent entering text isn’t registered the same way that time spent listening to other people talk is registered; partly, perhaps, it is an illusion.
* Insecurity. Call screening used to be considered anti-social and arrogant. Now it’s a normal part of life. But calling a mobile phone implies near-certainty that the other party will hear the call come in. What if the other party rejects your call? Even if the reason is a good one — he’s in a meeting, in the bathroom, sleeping, watching a movie, has his hands full — the sense is still that “something else” was more important than talking to me. Sending a text message alleviates the need to experience that little subconscious emotional tension while the phone rings. You send the message; the other party will respond within a reasonable amount of time (or won’t).
* Avoidance of intimacy. Having a vocalized conversation encourages a level of personal connection that isn’t necessary in a test message. There’s a protocol of “how are you?” and “how’s your Mom?” and “thanks for the update; I’ll get back to you.” People are often lazy, selfish, or not interested enough to invest that kind of energy when “im 10 mis l8″ will convey the required message.
* Burden of attention. Slightly different from the previous issue of the energy demands of intimacy, this has more to do with attention and focus. SMS allows you to interact as much as you want to, for as long as you want to, when you want to. You can limit your attention. In a conversation, you need to be “on”, to listen, to provide feedback — in other words, it takes attention.
If you are watching TV or reading emails or playing your PSP while the other person is talking, they will notice and be offended. In an SMS or IM exchange, you can only pay attention when you’re the one talking (and doesn’t that make for the most interesting conversations?). No feigning interest required. In that sense, SMS is the ultimate self-centered communication medium.
done | and done .
Thanks for the offer but I actually like some of the answers that I am now getting.
You are probably right about going to the voicemail providers but for $100 I was hoping someone would figure out how to do that work for me:)
TBO The FCC's information wouldn't be very valuable though.
Their information probably comes from PUC's and TLU's , which only account for OTE (Over The Emergency) channel barrier.
Which all commercial telecommunications providers are required to do by law in the US. eg: Register with the E911 system and local PUC/TLU in the area they provide.
Once a call hits a PBX or Private switch it is no longer OTE.
(Note that there is a delay drop in place of 1 minute i believe from a PBX to a landline/cellline)
(Someone correct me if im wrong)
Anyways one thing i AM sure of.
That also doesn't account for VoIP calls and VPN type calls.
jonceramic , jamies question was very vague so i was equally vague so shoot me.
I tried to give a very REALISTIC answer.
And still stand by that answer. 1 Billion.
Can you hear me now ?.... good.
And yet, sir, still a COMPLETE WAG... (And yes, xds and my original WAGs confirm the order of magnitude.)
Wait, do heavy breathing hang-ups on my answering machine count? Cause, I get a lot of those.
(Boy, I'm kinda being a douche tonight, LOL.)
For a serious question, what about internal voice mails? I know that in our system, internal voicemails, now via IP phone, and retrievable via email and blackberry, are becoming much more important.
Do those calls even get included in "82 billion common carrier" calls?
It's possible that we've vastly underestimated the market.
xds, a statistic is a statistic -- I don't have direct access to AT&T's study, and so I do not know whether or not it only targeted their customers. Either way, it can likely be inferred that, based on the size of AT&T's customer base, a statistical sample would be representative of the larger market (the U.S. market). I find no reason to suspect that AT&T users reach their intended call-ees that much more or less often than other networks.
The FCC's info appeared to address all "major carriers", which I inferred to include any that would have reason to register with the FCC (wireless and landline). The particular statistic I obtained off of page 23 in the report -- data for originating calls in reporting carriers' jurisdictions. Unfortunately, the FCC did not appear to have posted for recent years (2007 or even 2006), so there was not much I could do about that.
jonceramic, there is no possible way to obtain specific data from a lot of internal systems - for example, vast government telecommunications networks that don't report voicemail usage (let alone the vast number of small businesses that don't either). That is why I attempted a statistical solution, which has its own caveats, and is really best for "order of magnitude" approximation (as I already stated).
I recently decided to delve a little deeper into the data the FCC has posted online in its "Statistics of Communications Common Carriers" reports, to see about clarifying the direction the telephone industry has been going, and thus the potential recent changes in voicemail usage.
The FCC's reports are given here:
http://www.fcc.gov/Bureaus/Common_Carrier/Reports/FCC-State_Link/SOCC/
Data for 2005 and 2006 are contained in the same zip file (corresponding to 2005).
Here is a brief list of telephone call totals in the U.S., as given in table 2.6 (table 2.5 in later reports):
1995 - 97479227000
1996 - 95410058000
1997 - 101634000000
1998 - 97479227000
1999 - 102800000000
2000 - 106515000000
2001 - 98364779000
2002 - 90456584000
2003 - 81642079000
2004 - 82777153000
2005 - 79740096000
2006 - 73346108070
Notice that telephone usage appeared to peak in the year 2000, and has been on the steady decline, likely due to a reflected increase in usage of texting and email communication. A power regression at points around the peak towards the present gives the following approximation of telephone usage in 2008: ~ 67 billion calls.
Using the same statistics as in the prior solution, (67000000000/12)*0.75*0.78 = ~ 3.27 billion voicemails per month in the U.S.
It is somewhat doubtful that voicemail usage will decrease much further in the near future; with increased voice services being offered via the internet (VOIP), it will probably only be a matter of time before voice communications regularly bypasses FCC regulation (VOIP-VOIP, rather than VOIP-phone), and newer statistical methodologies may have to be found to give good approximations.
I will wait for more answers to pick the best answer but so far I would say that this answer is on the right track. Very creative way of coming to the number that I had not previously thought of.
Does that statistic also take into account the fact that not everyone actually leaves a voicemail ?
Just because they prefer to doesn't mean they are going to or even know how in the first place. eg: grandma and granpa
Also AT&T is only one provider. , He's talking ALL major providers.
very nice edd
XDS I understand what you are saying about the numbers. However the one fact that Edd grabbed that I had not seen was the total number of calls generated in the US. I would really like to see what that number is for 2007 (since the one he has is from 2003). Knowing that number I think that it would then be much easier to make educated guesses about the total number of voicemail's left in the US. I would of thought it to be a bit higher...