There is no general answer for this question. It has been exhausted in Judo forums and no simple, general answer was found. It really depends on way too many factors like was said before.

You may find it very useful to read the following entry in the most visited, reliable and serious Judo forum in the net Today:

http://judoforum.com/index.php?showtopic=7584&hl=to+black+belt

Despite that there are some generalities that can be summed after reading zillions of forum posts in this subject.

2 to 3 years is way too quick to earn a Shodan (first dan black-belt in Judo), unless you are a prodigy, or the Judo standards in your club are really low, or, you are in Japan, where the training regime allows for such a relatively quick ascension to black belt (they train from Monday to Saturday, everyday, 3 to 4 hours a day or more, some training even on Sunday, and more hours each day). Also, in Japan the first dan (degree) black-belt means not an accomplishment as in the west, it is considered only the beginning, and most Judoka earn it at 15 or 16 years-old.

Training in the West, 2 days a week for 2 hours each day, as is common, can take a dedicated and a little above average gifted person to the black belt in 6 to 8 years.

Training 3 times a week for 2 hours each can take the same person 5 years to reach a black belt, perhaps 4.

Conclusion: Less than 5 years for a black belt will certainly require a very dedicated person training each day. 10 years or more is a little too slow, perhaps someone who skip way too many days...

For me it took 7 years to reach shodan: 1 year and I was yellow, another year and orange, the next year green, and the next purple. I skipped 1 year of training Judo doing only Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and when I got back I was awarded the brown belt... after around 8 months I was awarded the black-belt. (if you do not count the 1 year skipped I got to shodan in a little less than 6 years of training, and I am very dedicated to Judo!!!)
Source(s):
Personal experience, 18 years of BJJ and Judo together, and this nice forum post: http://judoforum.com/index.php?showtopic=7584&hl=to+black+belt

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