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M$10 March 18, 2009 04:21 PM

Has the market hit the bottom? Looking for well thought out meta-perspective for my

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March 22, 2009 12:58 AM | view on twitter
Short answer: No. The housing bubble has not yet finished deflating. The stock market may appear to be rallying but this is just government intervention creating another temporary bubble.

Long Answer
There are still 19 Million empty homes in the United States (Bloomberg.com) that means that we need 19 million new home owners until the equity in homes can start to rise nationally. And since no one is going to get home equity loans on an upside down mortgage, then there will be less credit going out and less investment.

But what about all the government spending? This too is just a bubble effect. In order for any business model to survive long term there needs to be a investment-profit-reinvestment cycle. The government has never successfully created this model and the only way that they maintain themselves is to force investment through taxes. Every time the government increases taxes then that is less money everyone else has to spend/invest.

So in effect every dollar that the government spent on stimulus is less money that companies can earn and therefor thier profit margins will go down requiring them to receive more government bailouts which in turn means more taxes which in turn means less spending. We are in a downward spiral.

And if the government just prints more money then every dollar already in circulation goes down in value.

The market will not be able to raise steadily until the government stops trying to fix it.
Source(s):
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aKuf...



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March 18, 2009 05:00 PM | view on twitter
yes if we go any lower we will probably end up in another great depression

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March 18, 2009 05:30 PM | view on twitter
Market hit the bottom?

I don't think we are even close. Its a self perpetuating cycle. People are scared so they spend less money because people spend less money companies see profits fall and companies get scared. Companies are scared so they institute hiring freezes and even lay people off. Then people hear of the lay offs and hiring freezes so they are more scared and spend less money.

At the same time that I say that, I don't feel the results myself. Officially my company has a hiring freeze on, but I still work my 40, my check is the same, my bills are the same. I have just as much free cash and spend it the same way I always have. I don't really know anyone affected by this "recession".

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March 18, 2009 05:47 PM | view on twitter
It depends on what you would consider bottom as. If you define it as the lowest point or part as the dictionary says, then no we aren't at the bottom. However, if you consider bottom as being as low as the economy can go without totally collapsing, then still probably not. Even though the economy looks bad, there are still a lot of places in the market that are doing good, even thriving. If those parts of the market begin to fail, then that might be that definition of the bottom of the market. Finally, if you define bottom as the point where the economy is totally trashed, but not quite as low as possible, as in the great depression, then we still aren't at the bottom. The market dropped over 90% in the great depression and so far we've dropped just a bit over 50% of the market. We're still a long way away from that sort of bottom. Overall, I'd say we still have a while to go before we reach any sort of bottom, but we aren't that far away.

On another note, is there supposed to be something after my in your question ("Looking for well thought out meta-perspective for my")?

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March 18, 2009 07:33 PM | view on twitter
It's hard to call the bottom, just as it's hard to call the top. That depends on irrational psychology and even things like what-people-think-other-people-think. Anyone that gets it exactly right is probably far more lucky than smart.

However, it's no longer a no brainer to bet that things will just go down.

There are people out there buying now. Their rationale is that all of the actions that have been announced have yet to actually feed through. Interest rate cuts even in more normal times take 18 months to have their full effect. And most of the public spending that's been announced won't even actually get spent without similar lead times. You don't just decide to build more bridges one day and be all set to start construction the next morning.

Typically markets go down before the "real" economy feels the pain, and go back up before the real economy recovers.

Apparently Goldman Sachs thinks US equities are now 32% below "fair value", and 58% below something they call "equilbrium level".

Also, bear in mind that you don't need to call the exact bottom to gain a decent return in that kind of situation. Apparently people who bought stocks in 1931, well before the the very bottom, would have seen a healthy 6.9% real return over the next ten years.

It's always a bet, but the odds aren't bad that money could be make from investing now.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13278992

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March 18, 2009 11:38 PM | view on twitter
The Baltic Dry Index is a good leading indicator for economic growth since it tracks the cost to book raw material cargo on various sea routes. Raw material consumption is a good leading indicator that the production hubs of the world have started to build inventory -something that should signal a turnaround or "bottoming out" of the economy.

Lately the index has seen some growth after a stead fall over many months, but it is not consistent growth yet. Once the index shows steady growth for atleast 3 months -I would conclude that we have turned around.
Source(s):
http://www.slate.com/id/2090303/
http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Baltic_Dry_Index_-_BDI_(BALDRY)/WikiChart


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March 19, 2009 01:31 AM | view on twitter
At this point, I don't think the market has hit bottom. I truly think things could get far worse than they are now. We already have the strange fear-mongering over the current AIG bonuses issue. Such was a tiny fraction of the bailout given AIG. If it ever got out that some of the bailout money went through AIG to European financial institutions, things would be far more depressed. At the moment we've just got a frenzy being whipped up by those wanting to avoid that bit of ugliness.

Right now we see a public frenzy over less than $150 million. Reuters recently stated in regards to foreign banks getting cash via AIG: "Goldman was followed by Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) with $11.9 billion, Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) with $11.8 billion and Barclays PLC (BARC.L) with $8.5 billion." The middle link in the sources section below is where that came from. Propping up German, French, and British banks via AIG is a bigger danger in today's insular isolationism in America.
Source(s):
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDBiMjMzYjgyYzQwYTIzODE3YzMxODA5NT...
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-CreditCrisis/idUSN1712706420090318
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-CreditCrisis/idUSTRE52H3T220090318


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March 19, 2009 06:17 PM
Not yet, but very close to bottom.
1. the VIX volatility index .VIX ,known as Wall Street's fear gauge, has remained below levels seen last November.
2. one good week in the market does not mean that the worst is behind us. Basically, one good week in the market means simply that we had one good week.
3. Emotions should not dictate investment decisions. Emotions are a two-way street. We should not get overly giddy when the market is rising; nor should we get overly depressed when the market is falling.
4. It's not the market that determines whether you should be investing or not, but rather what your individual goals and objectives are.
Source(s):
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1844687920090319


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March 20, 2009 02:30 AM | view on twitter
Who cares!! If you have a long enough horizon it couldn't be a better time to buy. Maybe we're not at the exact bottom, but close enough. The economy will rebound and the stock prices will recover. The market may rise very quickly as people start to realize they're missing out and over-compensate. If you plan to be in it for 20 years you can't miss this opportunity. So to answer your question - "it's close enough".

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March 21, 2009 03:25 PM | view on twitter
This is an impossible question to answer accurately. No one knows the future. At best it is a guess. We have all learned that economic indicators can be wrong, experts misled, and large system corrupted. Catastrophic events can disrupt stable system which should never destabilize. Black swans prove that stats lie.

http://www.census.gov/mtis/www/mtis_current.html

Business Sales and Inventory in 2009 are lower than 2008

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of January was 1.43. The January 2008 ratio was 1.25.

Inventories are not increase/Sales that are decreasing the result is a higher Inventories/Sales Ratio

The ratio makes more sense if inventories are increasing in anticipation of higher sales. Higher inventories means orders are increasing.

WSJ reported that manufacturing inventories are improving slightly. Orders remain weak.

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE FEBRUARY 2009
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MFGROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942

PMI 35.8 (Slower)
New Order 33.1 (Faster)
Production 36.3 (Slower)
Employment 26.1 (Contracting) ->Downsizing indicators lower demand
Inventories 37.0 (Contracting) ->Saving money by depleting inventories
Supplier Deliveries 46.7 (Slower)
Customer Inventories 51 (High inventories) ->Slower sales volume, heavier liabilities by holding larger inventories.
Price Dec 29 (decreasing) -> Too much supply
Export 37.5 (contracting)
Imports 32 (contracting)

In conclusion: higher government spending and trillions of dollars of consumer debt is damping consumer spending. Saving is increased and debt shed. However, this takes time. I still think the business cycle has a twenty year correction too heal from the debt. Short term, spending my delay the correction and spur a profit taking rally.
Source(s):
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MFGROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942


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March 22, 2009 12:53 PM | view on twitter
No, it will not be until the year end for a turnaround.
Source(s):
gutfeel.com


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