I have been tracking the pandemic since mid-summer. Every Friday, I check the weekly reports and document the statistics. I think it's a mistake to dismiss the severity of this pandemic.

On July 17, 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) stated:

“The 2009 influenza pandemic has spread internationally with unprecedented speed. In past pandemics, influenza viruses have needed more than six months to spread as widely as the new H1N1 virus has spread in less than six weeks."
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/h1n1_surveillance_20090710/en/index.html

There’s a certain irony about this pandemic: With villages having become metropolitan in scope, it’s not likely that people will take seriously the spread of the virus until it hits close to home. At this time, I don’t personally know anyone who has become infected by, let alone died from, the virus, but I think that it's only a matter of time. My phys. ed. instructor dismissed the virulence, saying essentially that any healthy person can overcome it.

However, a Yahoo! News report, dated August 28, stated:

“Doctors are reporting a severe form of swine flu that goes straight to the lungs, causing severe illness in otherwise healthy young people and requiring expensive hospital treatment. . . ."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090828/hl_nm/us_flu_pandemic

Moreover, as early as June 30, 2009, there were indications of a Tamiflu-resistant strain:

“Scientists have established the first case of the new H1N1 influenza strain showing resistance to Tamiflu, the main antiviral flu drug, Danish officials and the manufacturer said on Monday.”
http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/06/swine_flu_and_tamiflu_resistan.php

The swine flu has been dismissed due to the belief that deaths occur primarily in people with underlying conditions. While that was true in the beginning, the demographic of those affected had shifted rapidly in just four months. In August, I answered a related Mahalo question, posted by ssmacd: http://www.mahalo.com/answers/health/how-many-of-swine-flu-california-californias-92-swine-flu-deaths-have-been-in-people-with-no-pre-existing-health-conditions. The following is from the August 21, 2009, report by the WHO:

"The presence of underlying medical conditions will not reliably predict all or even most cases of severe illness. Worldwide, around 40% of severe cases are now occurring in previously healthy children and adults, usually under the age of 50 years."
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/h1n1_use_antivirals_20090820/...

Currently, the global death-toll reports lag due to reporting delays by the various WHO regions. My weekly statistics indicate that the reporting for the
WHO Regional Office for the Americas (AMRO) is not keeping up with the death toll in the U.S. alone. Accordingly, the report of 5,000 deaths worldwide is a conservative estimate: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_10_23/en/index.html
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_10_23/en/index.html

Some further considerations regarding the spread of the flu:

1) From the beginning, states with the highest death tolls have also been those with high concentrations of Hispanic people: California, New York, Florida, and Texas. In the beginning, New York was in the lead (30 New York deaths out of 87 nationwide, as of June 19*) but California overtook New York in July. While I have yet to confirm a definite correlation between the deaths in these states, and the Hispanic population, please remember that the flu originated in Mexico. Currently, California's death toll is 233, around 9% of the U.S. total.
http://www.cdph.ca.gov//HealthInfo/discond/Pages/SwineInfluenza.aspx

*Unfortunately, news links for some of the earlier stories have since been removed, so I'm unable to post sources for certain statistics.

2) Currently, the southern hemisphere is ending its flu season, while the northern hemisphere is beginning its flu season. The majority of previous deaths occurred in the southern regions.

3) On July 24, I show the U.S. death toll at 263, a jump of 52 from the previous week. On October 23, I show the U.S. death toll at 2,416, a jump of 385 from the previous week. That's an average of 55 deaths per day. This may not seem like too many, but the average is climbing, especially now that we're in flu season.

4) A Fox News report, dated October 17, echos a report from the CDC:

"Of the 86 children who have died since the new swine flu arose last spring, 43 deaths have been reported in September and early October alone, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported. That's a startling number because in some past winters, the CDC has counted 40 or 50 child deaths for the entire flu season — and no one knows how long this swine flu outbreak will last."
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,567680,00.html

People can and do get re-infected, so with the way that the virus is rapidly mutating, it's not unreasonable to presume that people, who overcame milder strains of the virus, can be reinfected with a more severe strain that's harder to overcome.

I have no reason to believe that the CDC is hyperinflating the severity of the situation. Also, I have no reason to believe that the families, who've recently experienced the deaths of otherwise healthy teen-aged children, are dismissing the CDC, either.

.
Source(s):
The spread of the pandemic
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/h1n1_surveillance_20090710/en...

Swine flu in otherwise healthy people
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090828/hl_nm/us_flu_pandemic

Tamiflu resistance
http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/06/swine_flu_and_tamiflu_resista...

40% of severe cases in healthy people
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/h1n1_use_antivirals_20090820/...

Global death toll
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_10_23/en/index.html

California death toll
http://www.cdph.ca.gov//HealthInfo/discond/Pages/SwineInfluenza.aspx

86 child deaths
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,567680,00.html

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