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According to this entry on NFL stats, the team receiving the ball won 60% of the time in overtimes. In 30% of the games, the team receiving the ball won the game on the initial drive.
Statistically, that's a pretty big advantage. Still, it's not insurmountable, and in 70% of overtime games, each team's offense had the ball. However, I don't think the issue is really fairness, per se. Sports outcomes have to accept some level of randomness. I believe the problem is that most fans identify more strongly with the star offensive players than with their team's defense. When the team loses in OT, and their own heroes didn't even get a chance to play (i.e., Peyton Manning), they feel cheated.
Source(s):
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/10/how-important-is-coin-flip-in-ot.ht...
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Since it's impossible to remove the premise of "someone gets the ball first", this will always exist. Frankly, I think the best way of retaining the most fairness with respect to ball possession is to completely remove the 'resetting' of it at the end of halves--in other words, ending the half should be the same as ending the 1st or 3rd quarter; play should pick up right where it left off.
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I'm sure the statistics indicate an extreme bias towards the random team that happens to get the ball first. Winning an athletic game should not come down to randow draws .... I could watch lottery drawings for that kind of "excitement."
The game should come down to skill, and the NCAA overtime format allows that to happen.
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Answered Question
January 04, 2009 08:07 PM
Should the NFL change its overtime format to be more similar to the NCAA's?
The Chargers won in overtime last night against the Colts. Also, they won the toss and got the ball first. Some people think that it showed that NFL overtime is unfairly biased to whoever gets the ball first.
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| January 04, 2009 10:20 PM |
Statistically, that's a pretty big advantage. Still, it's not insurmountable, and in 70% of overtime games, each team's offense had the ball. However, I don't think the issue is really fairness, per se. Sports outcomes have to accept some level of randomness. I believe the problem is that most fans identify more strongly with the star offensive players than with their team's defense. When the team loses in OT, and their own heroes didn't even get a chance to play (i.e., Peyton Manning), they feel cheated.
Source(s):
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/10/how-important-is-coin-flip-in-ot.ht...
| Asker's Rating: |
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Other Answers (3)
January 04, 2009 08:18 PM
Well, the fact that the coin toss that determines who gets the ball first is (essentially) random removes all bias. It's technically not "unfair" that both teams have a 50% chance of 'receiving' that advantage. And it's not just overtime that exemplifies that advantage--depending on who gets the ball first, strategies of running out the clock and things like that can be more or less effective, and be advantages of their own. Since it's impossible to remove the premise of "someone gets the ball first", this will always exist. Frankly, I think the best way of retaining the most fairness with respect to ball possession is to completely remove the 'resetting' of it at the end of halves--in other words, ending the half should be the same as ending the 1st or 3rd quarter; play should pick up right where it left off.
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January 04, 2009 08:26 PM
I think the NCAA's football overtime format is far more fair that the NFL's. I'm sure the statistics indicate an extreme bias towards the random team that happens to get the ball first. Winning an athletic game should not come down to randow draws .... I could watch lottery drawings for that kind of "excitement."
The game should come down to skill, and the NCAA overtime format allows that to happen.
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