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M$1.00  Funded By Mahalo ? |  April 03, 2009 10:10 PM

texas hold'em: does pocket aces always get beat by 4 to a flush?

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April 03, 2009 11:16 PM | view on twitter
Alright so I don't play a lot of poker, but I'm still going to attempt to answer this. Feel free to correct me though.

Assuming you 2 hearts in your hand, and two more come out on the flop, you then need a heart to come on either the turn or the river.

Assuming that you don't know any of the other players cards:

The odds of a heart coming out on the turn are 9/47 or 19.1%

The odds of a heart coming out on the river are 9/46 or 19.6%

So the odds of hitting a flush when you have 4 to a flush after the flop are 19.1%+19.6% or 38.7%

So it would seem that your chances of winning are somewhere around 40%, although it depends a lot on which exactly cards you and your opponent have. (If one of his aces is in the suit of your flush draw, that hurts your chances even more.)

I also simulated this situation on this website:
http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Poker-Odds-Calculator.php
and again found that the odds were about 60-40 in favor of the pocket aces.

However this is all assuming that both players stay in till the end of the hand. I have heard people say that what your cards are isn't nearly as important as how you bet them. And if you do hit the flush, your payoff will most likely be bigger than if the guy with the aces wins, so there is a lot to consider.


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Voted as best: lesliec, ensorceled, mrnemo, bbrookin
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April 03, 2009 10:24 PM | view on twitter
Statistically, if you are talking after the flop but before the river, I believe the odds on the fifth flush card are very good. In other words, pocket Aces are often not the best hand to have once the flop has come and no additional Aces have appeared. There are only 4 Aces in the deck, versus 13 of every suit. Chances are if you are holding 2 of them, the other two appearing on the board are very low compared to a 4-to-a-flush draw.

If I am holding 4-to-a-flush on the flop, I am usually in until at least the river card, as a flush is a very strong hand in Hold'em games. Obviously you need to account for what else is on the board, and how the other players are betting.
Source(s):
Years of poker playing.


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April 03, 2009 10:30 PM | view on twitter
No, but as Kenny Rogers famously said, "you gotta know when to hold em; know when to fold 'em." Sure, pocket aces is the best hand statistically to start out with, but they are obviously not unbeatable. Play them aggressively to begin with then you shouldn't have to worry about 4-to-a-flush callers.

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Voted as best: masontx
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