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December 30, 2008 09:45 AM

Do you really think that the gas prices will shoot back up into the 4 and 5 dollar range?

I hear people say that they are positive that gas prices will be back up again to where they were before they dropped (ridiculous I know). Is there any way of knowing FOR SURE that these gas prices will go ridiculously high again? Or are we all just going for a ride, encountering surprises and disappointments along the way?
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December 30, 2008 11:35 PM
Oil is not a renewable resource. So, as the oil runs out (however long it may take), the price will be increase. Also, as others have mentioned, there is the increased demand for oil in China and India. What surprised me most about this is the ratio of cars to people. In China it is 40 cars per 1000 people. India has 60-some cars per 1000 people. When these ratios increase, we will have many global shortages of oil. And then there are factory's use of oil in developing companies. That will increase as well although I don't have figures.
Source(s):
http://etc.technologyandculture.net/2008/12/15/a-car-for-the-great-asian-mu...

Magazines (Newsweek, the Week, others) have given me a gist of the possible problems with oil production and shortages. Of course, it is all opinion as it is not possible to predict the future of car ownership, for example, in a country.



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December 30, 2008 10:48 AM
If OPEC has anything to do with it then prices will be back up higher than ever.

I've attached an article from Reuters which does a very good job of summing up OPEC's moves in recent months.

As a mechanical engineer with contacts in the Oil Industry one thing to note is that Oil conglomerates - no matter what they tell you - do not require $75 a barrel to make a profit. It costs companies with existing pipelines approximately $4 a barrel to get Oil out of the ground and refined. There of course is a high initial cost of building the refineries but it in no way justifies the high costs that they claim are 'fair.'

Hope this helped.
Source(s):
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSLG66045920081217


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December 30, 2008 01:22 PM
In addition to OPEC, we need to consider growing demand internationally. China and India each have populations nearly four times that of the US and as they (very quickly) develop economically, their demand for oil for industry and automotive fuel will quickly outstrip that of the US. When this happens, we also no longer get to push as hard for good rates on what we do import, because we are no longer the most important customer.

Of course technically speaking, since inflation seems to be an overall permanent fixture of our economy, there will come a day when gasoline costs $10 per gallon, but that wouldn't be measured in today's money.

Another factor, perhaps the most important one, is simply speculation. In the markets this becomes a powerful tool to shift prices, but guessing has a very major impact on prices, if enough people do it. Can fuel stations stay in business with $2 gas? Obviously. Do cars run as well? Have there been reports of widespread panic in OPEC countries due to likely famine from lack of export revenue? The system works at $2, or $4, or $10, at least for everyone but the individual consumer. But if enough people choose to believe in rising prices, and buy into the markets accordingly, they will go up, regardless of OPECs actions.
Source(s):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population


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December 30, 2008 08:24 PM
Of course it will. It will go even higher, it's just a question of when. I'm thinking around next year for an increase. Everyone should go speculate on oil futures now so we can get another good bubble started.

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December 31, 2008 01:09 AM - Fact Refuted
But why and how are you "so sure" that it will increase?

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December 31, 2008 03:33 AM
Because they're only keeping it low until demand for alternative energy fades and the green startups fail. That shouldn't take too long in the current environment, unless Obama does something to support it, like setting a minimum price(which I'm not sure is a good idea, just a theory)

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December 30, 2008 10:34 PM
It's pretty much inevitable. If you want to prepare for it, figure out how to commute in your area using public transportation. You don't have to worry about gas prices if you don't have to drive!

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December 31, 2008 01:10 AM
We could also think about alternative types of energy.

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December 31, 2008 12:49 AM
I think they will. I think it will take longer than this time because demand is so low. But it's inevitable. I would bet money that it will be up past $6 within three years.

I will say, I tutor a girl whose father is in the business, and he has no clue what will happen. I tried to ask him whether I should invest in oil now that it's so low, and he wasn't even willing to say yes or no.

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